The future of world economy...?

Question

of course china is an emerging country, likely to beat all other countries in the economic sector. but what about current economic powers like the us, japan, germany, france? how will they perform?

the us seems to have big problems, germany and japan did have so, but developed well lately, france seems to loose it's status as an economic power...

however germany and japan are still great at science and technology, so will they stay at the top of economic powers?

Answer 1

It all depends on politics.  Britain was in the doldrums until Thatcher tamed the unions.  France has tried economic reforms, but has not succeeded in making them stick.  Germany has the same problems: too little work to support too many rent colectors.  As for the US, much hinges on the upcoming election; should the Democrats prevail, the country is in for some extremely hard times.

Answer 2

The US will become like Zimbabwe .

Answer 3

No; not with the focus being turned to the high price of living.Fun and games are fazing out for the best. Jobs and tools that support families will grow.

Answer 4

China is an emerging country, and it has a higher population than anywhere else in the world, so if its economic activity per person rose to on par with the western world's, they would *have* to have the largest total economy in the world by a large margin.  It is only the fact that people in China have a substantially lower standard of living than other places which prevents their economy from being on top today.

Germany, I think, is in fairly good shape long term.  They have strong exports even with a good standard of living.  France less so, but still decent.  Japan has arguably been in a slump for quite a while by some measures (the Nikkei trades at less than half its 1990 peak) but they still are ahead in innovation.

The US will, I think, stop being a superpower, but it will still be a regional power -- the main economy of North America.  It will just not have the wherewithal to make nearly-unilateral war on distant countries any more.  Kind of like what happened to Britain at the end of the 19th century as they stopped being the "British Empire" and started being just a country again.

What will probably stop is the outsourcing of manufacturing to countries with low standards of living (like china and india), and shipping the products to countries with high standards of living.  The labour costs in china and india are rising as are the transportation costs of the finished goods, making it more economical to produce locally.

Answer 5

Japan will seem to lose its economic productivity because its population is shrinking and aging at the same time. Unless Japan accepts permanent migrants or encourages its citizens to have more children, its young but small workforce won't be able to support the services and manufacturing sectors. Japan is in a road of an economic meltdown. This is also happening in France, the UK and Germany, but the problem is not as imminent as Japan.

China has overtaken Italy and perhaps the UK and France in terms of economic size (GDP per capita x total population). India may soon follow China. Hence, these European nations are/will be ranked down.

For the far future, perhaps a century or more, I guess Russia and Canada will soon dominate the world in economic power considering the abundant resources these two countries have, yet much of these resources are still untapped/untouched because of their climate. If the icecaps will really melt, and the if world go warmer, Russia and Canada will have much to exploit.