Three different paths to the same impasse

Question

Three different paths to the same impasse

Answer 1

Artur Mas takes months proclaiming that Mariano Rajoy wants to agree with the call for sovereignty query, but works in parallel to call it unilaterally. The three paths taken by the Government of Catalonia and the sovereigntist Bloc parties Catalan Parliament in all cases lead to a dead end, either because they will crash against the overwhelming majority of Congress or by the expected ruling of the Constitutional Court. The presidential adviser, Francesc Homs, gave good faith of such a strategy in an interview Thursday at the Cadena SER, when asked to sit Rajoy to negotiate while expressing the Catalan people " voting will end." Homs also said the Government would be willing even to amend the double question and agreed by the four sovereignist parties (CiU, ERC, Initiative, and CUP) if that is the State guarantee lograse. "An alternative is made to that question, and will negotiate. The Scots originally made ​​a different question that has finally been made ​​, " said Homs.

The first of the routes used by Mas was hatched on January 16 in the Catalan parliament, where 87 of the 135 MPs approved a bill in Congress to discuss claiming for the delegation to the Government of the power to call a referendum under Article 150.2 of the Constitution. The House has already given approval to initiate processing, but PP, PSOE and UPyD (85 % of the seats) announced weeks ago that they will vote against.

Interestingly this proposition Catalan Chamber will not be discussed until at least September. The explanation is that only Congress debates a bill of regional parliaments in the first meeting of each month and now there are five waiting to be discussed from February. The first initiative is to be discussed arises precisely from the Catalan Parliament and referred to the mortgage law, then follow two of the Valencian Parliament, one of the Navarre Parliament and the fifth, the Galician Parliament.

In July and August there is no session, so the transfer request would go to September in the best case if, on average, any regional parliament not make a statutory reform. If so would take precedence over Catalan proposition.

Francesc Vallès, PSC member in Congress, explains that " sovereignist parties have forced the calendar and have deceived us all." The congressman warns of scenario that could occur if Artur Mas Consultation convened November 9, 56 days before its conclusion (for both September) without Congress has voted even proposition submitted by the Catalan Parliament.

The Government and the sovereignist parties are aware of that scenario. Hence, to gain time, they have chosen a second way: CiU, ERC and Initiative, pending when added or Plural Left, submit a bill in Congress in terms very similar to that approved by camera Catalan.

The beginning of that road is scheduled for next week, but once registered the proposition, the Government may delay your processing if you use the power to act within 30 days on whether the law involves an increase in appropriations or a decrease in budget revenues. Given that a referendum does not come free and the Government has a reserve in the budget this year, it is assumed that the government will use its powers. Thus, we should expect in late March or early April, when one of the three parliamentary groups that support the motion to have the allocated quota. Overcome all these procedures eventually would face again the vote against 86% for Members of Congress and would be rejected.

The date on which this scenario occurs is important, for surely that is up to Mas enable the third possible way to make the referendum a reality: the law of Catalan queries. The text and as a paper at the Catalan Parliament with only by dealing with amendments. Since mid-December the deputies are not met and there is no call for the hearing, so the likely scenario that may be shuffling the Catalan leader is covering stages and go across the river from the Catalan law when the transfer is rejected competition.

And this is where the tour ends. As law consultations, Mas has the legal framework to convene and probably both published the same day in the Official Gazette of the Generalitat is approved. The date manages to sign the decree is the second half of September, taking advantage of the echo that could have a new demonstration call of independence to mark the 11th National Day, this year special celebrating the tercentenary of the Catalan defeat against the Bourbon troops in 1714. The Government will take a sigh appeal the call to the Constitutional Court and is more than likely to be suspended. That's when the President of the Government will be exhausted come the end of the dead end.

Homs admitted Thursday that stage and tried to seek legal consultation lace, raising that as a sort of "survey". In his opinion, a victory of secessionism " not in itself generate a new legal situation, but the opening of negotiations with the State." Government spokesman was asked: " Are we going to ban doing surveys? ".

Despite his insistence emphasize that consultation will take place, the Minister of the Presidency recognized that the Constitutional Court will have the last word. " If you are under appeal and is suspended, it would be illegal to sign the decree of convocation," admitted Homs.