Timepiece can clock on for Henry Cecil at Newmarket
Coming to firm conclusions from very little evidence is one the drawbacks of today's first day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket.
A card that caters for two and three-year-olds may provide an endless supply of information for later in the season but precious little by way of a form guide this side of the winning post. The Group Three Leslie Harrison Memorial Nell Gwyn Stakes has a market that looks more in keeping with a handicap than a Classic trial.
The favourite is Music Show who beat Atasari by a neck in the Rockfel Stakes, over course and distance, last October. Atasari should be able to reverse the placings on the 3lbs better terms and the penalty that Music Show must carry for that Group-race victory makes her vulnerable to what may be the unexposed talents of Safina.
Sir Michael Stoute’s filly has been backed for the 1000 Guineas on little racecourse form as she finished three lengths third to Field Day in a 20-runner Newmarket maiden at the end of October. However, it may be worth noting that Safina was the only runner with a single-figure stall draw to get into the first five finishers. It may well be that lack of company in the latter stages of the race made it harder for Safina on her debut and the fact that Stoute has elected to move straight up to a Pattern race cannot be ignored.
It is also hard to ignore Henry Cecil’s record in the Oaks. He has trained the winner of that Classic eight times and Timepiece can underline her claims as the current market favourite for the race by winning the Blue Square Feilden Stakes. Timepiece ended last season by winning a Listed race over a mile at Newmarket after which her trainer said: “I promise you seen haven't the best of her - she didn't like the ground and had gone over the top.”
The last time the winner of the bluesquare.com European Free Handicap has gone on to win a Guineas was when Mystiko won the 2000 Guineas in 1991. That record may not be bettered this year but the recent record of Barry Hills in the Free Handicap – two winners in the last three years – is hard to argue with and his Red Jazz does not look that harshly treated judged on his three-and-three-quarter-length third to Arcano in last year’s July Stakes.
John Gosden is usually one of the trainers to follow in April. His yard is reported to be one of the most forward in Newmarket this spring and that was emphasised by Dar Re Mi’s victory in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan last month. High Twelve has so far been found wanting when tried in the highest company but is top on official figures in the field for the Tattersalls Timeform 3-Y-O Trophy.
High Twelve’s performances seemed to trail off as he was stepped up in class last season but there may well have been valid excuses and he gave the impression of a colt who would improve for a step up in trip.
Those looking for reassurance in the wellbeing of the yard will note that Gosden’s three-year-olds have been in good form overall with a 33% strike-rate for the year.
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