Timepiece set to win Oaks for Henry Cecil
The markets point one way but the man who should know most seems to be thinking another.
Henry Cecil fields a formidable team for the Investec Oaks at Epsom with both Aviate and Timepiece attempting to provide the trainer with a ninth winner in the Classic. Stable jockey Tom Queally has been left with a difficult choice between the two fillies and has opted for the proven form of Aviate, who is unbeaten in three starts.
The last of those was the Musidora Stakes at York last month over an extended 10 furlongs, where she beat Gold Bubbles by a head, after finding herself in more pockets than one of Fagin’s thieves. Aviate would surely have won by further with a clear run but her breeding raises the question over whether she can extend that run to the 12 furlongs of the Oaks?
By comparison Timepiece looks bred for the job – by Zamindar out of the Sadler’s Wells filly Clepsydra – and there are some valid excuses for her two defeats this season. She finished four-and-a-quarter lengths behind Rumoush in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, when she herself had an interrupted run in the last quarter-mile. However, Timepiece had already beaten the third, Marie De Medici, convincingly at the same track as a two-year-old.
Timepiece was then beaten a length by Dyna Waltz in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield Park last month. She hit the front over two furlongs from home and found herself involved in a protracted duel with Celidh House that left Timepiece vulnerable to a late closer and she was conceding the winner 3lbs.
Reports have suggested that Timepiece has been superior to stable companion Bullet Train, winner of the Derby Trial on the same day at Lingfield, on the gallops at Newmarket and Cecil has said he will have the filly ridden differently in the Oaks, where a she may be best coming off a strong pace.
The main danger is Rumoush, who got the worst of the draw when she finished seventh in the 1000 Guineas last time out. She is clearly better than that but, as a half-sister to last year’s 1000 Guineas winner Ghanaati, there is a slight stamina doubt.
There should be fewer doubts on that score about Sajjhaa and her trainer, Michael Jarvis, does not run them in Classics for the fun of it but this will be only the second run of her life - after winning a Sandown maiden two weeks ago - and the form of that race is not strong.
A maiden has not won the Oaks since Sun Princess in 1983 and Remember When may not buck that trend. She was a good fourth to Bethrah in the Irish 1000 Guineas but the Aidan O’Brien fillies have not been setting the world alight this season. O’Brien has two other runners, Cabaret and Awe Inspiring, but neither may be needed for pacemaking duties with Akdarena in the field.
Jim Bolger’s filly has won twice this season with front-running tactics and has improved with the application of blinkers. She wears a visor this time but it may be that the headgear is not having the full effect now; and not many horses win Classics wearing them anyway.
The main supporting race on the card is the Group One Investec Coronation Cup.
Fame And Glory’s form tailed off a bit last year – probably tangled with Sea The Stars once too often – but he is rated 10lbs clear of main market rival Sariska and there may be more of a threat from Youmzain. But he is a hard horse to side with having won only six of 28 starts and finished second or third in another 14.
The Group Three Investec Diomed Stakes sees two interesting runners who are being upped in class from handicaps. Mabait was beaten just a neck in the Victoria Cup at Ascot last month but Penitent looked a Group horse in the making when he won the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster in March.
In the Investec Challenge Handicap, Tartan Gunna – who has been showing signs of form this season - has dropped to his most recent winning mark and can take advantage on a course that he proved he could handle when finishing third in a good handicap in April, while Set The Trend could be the one for the Investec Mile Handicap.
Tags: