Tipping points?

Question

What do you think are "real" tipping points in regards to Global Warming. For example: If Global Warming causes Lake Mead and Lake Powell to dry up in the next few years, while that may not be a big tipping point for Global Warming, it will certainly cause a tipping point for society. If over 25 million run out of water for themselves, their crops, livestock and electricity - that would have huge consequences. It could arguably start a war.

So my question is, what Global Warming issues do you think will cause major social and economic issues. Melting of the summer artic ice? Rising sea levels? Shifts in crop lands? What do you think are possibilities?

Answer 1

The price of grain will rise much more than it has in the last year for three reasons.  

1. The price will rise because the world population is growing and the amount of arable land is declining.  Although yields per acre are increasing, the rate of increase is less than the rate of farm land loss.  

2. Production is not economic at current prices.  In some parts of the wheat belt on the Canadian prairies, farmers have stopped producing wheat despite the 50% rise in price in 2007 because the cost of fuel and other inputs have risen more than the price of wheat.

3. There is a convergence between the food and energy markets.  

People can grumble about $100/bbl oil, but they will starve, revolt and fight wars over access to $1000/tonne wheat.  This will happen with or without global warming.  Global warming  merely accelerates the process.

Answer 2

We pass tipping points everyday.  California is now passed a tipping point.  They will run out of water.  The first affected will be farming.  Get ready for huge price jumps in the cost of vegetables.

My advice for California.  Look to the greenhouse farming of vegetables in Israel.  They are very expert in water loss management.

Answer 3

Price of grain.  Buy futures now.