Todays Quiz question.?

Question

Long overwater flight from west to east in the northern hemisphere that is near the edge of your fuel endurance that has a cyclonic storm sitting in the middle. Do you take the southern route which provides no stop, or the northern route which has a fuel stop just over half way?

EXPLAIN YOUR REASON(S)

Answer 1

Is the daily quiz going to be a regular feature?  I like it!

There is a lot of information that you didn't provide that I would need to consider.  How large is the storm?  Are the prevailing winds aloft still out of the west, or is the cyclonic flow enough for a strong wind out of the east at altitude?  Would the lack of options on the southerly route cause problems with single-engine driftdown performance?

I'm guessing that you left out those details on purpose to spur discussion.  I'm taking it that the cyclonic storm is what you're getting at - and that should give much more favorable winds on the south side.  If you're talking about fuel endurance being at the edge of still-air performance for the distance and there is no drift-down concerns, I'd take the southern route to take advantage of the tailwinds.

BUT: It depends on how much of an advantage it is.  Having no details of the storm, are you talking about the possibility of 120 knot headwinds on the north side (which is pretty rare - there would still be prevailing westerlies at altitude, even with a storm system in the vicinity).  If freak easterly winds would make the fuel stop at the edge of the aircraft's range, I would certainly take the southerly route.  Otherwise, I like options.  If it's only a 30-45 minute difference on the northerly route that gives options for fuel or emergency diversion, I'll take it!  We all know how detailed and accurate forecasts are for unpopulated areas in the middle of the ocean (yes, that is sarcasm), and I wouldn't want to rely on those forecasts being right to be able to make it to any fuel stop without dipping into reserve fuel.

EDIT:  Ok, given your additional information... I would take the northerly route.  I would expect a better tailwind on the southerly route, but I would also assume that I would have SOME tailwind on the northerly route - plus more options.  I don't want to take the southerly route, just to find out the winds aren't as strong as expected and be sweating about being into my reserves... and having no options if I need to perform a single-engine driftdown to a lower altitude where I'm burning more fuel.

Answer 2

I would take the northern route.  

The northern route has a fuel stop, so if the winds aloft are higher than forecast, which is a high probalbity due to the cyclonic storm that can increase its winds speed in a matter of hrs if the pressure drops in the eye, although you would be flying into a tail wind if you choose the southern route, I wouldnt want to be the one to put an aircraft down in the ocean because the winds are not what they said they were...

Answer 3

Uh. You take an overwater flight that is near the edge of your fuel endurance if you choose. Not me. These are the kinds of nifty mind teasers that can be fun, cyclonic, anticyclonic, etc., that has gotten many in trouble. So the correct answer is the one that comes from Universal aviation in Houston. We've given the bias's for our flight planning. And that bias never let's us consider an over water flight "near the edge of our fuel endurance".

Furtermore you've left out some crucial information. Are we talking about clyclonic system around a high or low pressure system. For instance, the North Atlantic Tracks. NAT, are repsositioned every 12 hours depending on the movements of the north atlantic high pressure system. The norhtern tracks are used for eastbound flights and the southern tracks for westbound flights to and from Europe and the US.

Answer 4

If you are talking about a piston pounder with ferry tanks, I don't go.

If I have a half ways capable aircraft I go the southern route because the storm will move in a northerly direction.