Tom Brady in 2008?

Question

Does anyone really expect him to approach his 2007 numbers? Every QB who has thrown for 40+ TDs has experienced a significant reduction the following year.

Peyton Manning threw 49 in 2004 and has followed that up with totals of 28, 31, and 31.

I say Brady will be lucky to toss 35 TDs this year. What say you?

Answer 1

Depends how well Randy Moss plays!

Answer 2

I am a NE Pats fan and even I realize that they are only in for a 12 win seasn at best because you got moss at the only real deep threat and I see them going to marony who better have a1200 yard season. So I say take an rough ave of every year prior to him having 4 great targets. Stallworth was a huge loss. Still got Moss Welker and the TE Watson but I think they have to be a little more run oriented this year esp if they want a ring this time around.

The D is the real concern

Answer 3

Yea, a lot of this depends on how happy Randy Moss is.  Although if he does throw 35 TD's this year, it will still be a successful fantasy year.  

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Answer 4

Hi Kevin,

I think you're correct that it is unprecedented what Brady did last year.  If you look at the numbers he put up 490 fantasy points (in the standard scoring system); the only other QB who was anywhere near that was Manning who put up up 335 (more than 150 points less).  That is simply unheard of.  

Now, I must say that I don't expect Brady's number to drop off as far as Payton's did.  Remember that this New England offense is more-or-less intact and you better believe that they remember the humiliating loss in the Superbowl.  If I had to guess I'd say that they'll be out to prove something again this year, and that can't bode well for opposing defenses.

Even if Brady tosses 35 TDs as you suggest (that seems reasonable), he still blows away Payton's stats from last year.  That simply can't be ignored in the world of fantasy football.  Brady is a very smart quarterback and he will find ways to score; as to date very few teams have figured out how to confuse him.

If I had to guess I'd say Brady will put up 39 TDs and 3700 yards though the air.  That is definitely a drop-off from last year, but still outrageous numbers from a fantasy perspective.

On the website in my source list, I provide rankings for each fantasy position along with their stats from 2007 and their fantasy point output.  You can even create your own player rankings using drag and drop and generate a printable fantasy football cheat sheet to bring to your draft.  It's free.

Good luck.