Trained observer can make a profit
Just about everyone who has ever had a bet is looking for a quick return and in racing the first weeks of the Flat season are centred on that type of investment.
The majority of the powerhouse yards will not field many runners before Newmarket’s Craven meeting, leaving the stage open for those with the craven intent to cash in early.
Jack Berry famously worked his horses even on Christmas Day to ensure that his yard would be ready for a flying start at Doncaster 12 weeks later and others will have been doing the same this time around, even through the depths of the worst winter for over 30 years.
The most obvious trainer to note so far this season is Richard Fahey. Paul Hanagan, his stable jockey, may be grabbing the headlines this week as well as nine winners – for a 47% strike-rate – but Fahey’s own stats of 29% since the gates crashed open at Doncaster on Saturday underline this as the partnership to follow for the next few weeks.
A winner in the Brocklesby Stakes is obviously a good sign for a yard’s juvenile division and three two-year-old winners from just five runners suggest that Fahey has a batch of youngsters that will have an edge in the run-of-the-mill races that are available to sharp types before the more promising horses are brought out from May onwards.
Fahey’s yard has been on an upward curve in recent seasons, to the point where he has become one of the most dominant trainers on the northern circuit with the exception of Mark Johnston. If Fahey follows the trend of last year his runners could well be worth following for the next couple of months at least. After that it will be interesting to see how he performs in terms of a guide to whether his own career is about to take a progression to the next level.
Another trainer who advertised his stable’s wellbeing this weekend is John Gosden. It was Luca Cumani who pointed out that horses “race for prestige in Britain, they race for prize money abroad” but Gosden managed both when Dar Re Mi claimed a cheque for over £1.8million when she won the Group One Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan’s Dubai World Cup meeting on Saturday night.
Not only did the victory cement the nascent partnership between the trainer and his newly-installed stable jockey, William Buick, but the purse equated to almost three-quarters of the money that Gosden runners accrued through last year’s British turf season. Furthermore, it was also tangible proof of the belief that his string is one of the most forward among Newmarket’s main trainers this spring.
Gosden had a 33% strike-rate through March, which is in keeping with his performance over the last couple of seasons. If the yard’s fortunes follow the graph of the last two years then Gosden runners should be followed through April and mid-May but could start to hit a flat spot in June and July.
Consistency is the best ally for anyone looking to back winners and, just looking at strike-rates alone, names like Stoute and Bin Suroor tend to be high up the pecking order. However, many of their runners go off at short prices based more on stable reputation than form.
Two names who can slip under the radar all too often are those of William Haggas and Michael Jarvis, but Haggas has a three-year strike-rate of around 19% and Jarvis runners are often value at the northern tracks.
Spotting the new talent can prove profitable and John Ryan could well be a trainer to watch this summer. He is one of the smaller yards in Newmarket but a 23% strike-rate on turf last season and 24 winners on the all-weather circuits through the winter suggest that he is one to follow.
At the other end of the scale is Sir Mark Prescott. One of the longest-established licence holders in Newmarket, Prescott has had Group One winners through his career but is just as happy plotting a sequence with an unexposed handicapper at the lower end of the scale.
Prescott winners before May are usually rarer than hen’s teeth but, once Heath House stables gets going, it remains remarkably consistent, posting an average strike-rate of 25% from May to August last year. Trademark Prescott horses are progressive handicappers who move up both in terms of quality and distance through the summer and a 27% strike-rate with his handicap runners proves the point, although his infrequent runners in sellers, claimers and apprentice races should not be overlooked.
Not a trainer for those seeking the quick return but all profits count.
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