UFC 118 Preview: James Toney vs Randy Couture
While the UFC 118 card this Saturday is being headlined by a very important and interesting lightweight title fight between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar, in the run-up to the fight most of the attention has been captured by what’s been dubbed as both a “freakshow” fight and an “MMA vs boxing match”, the fight between former UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture and boxing legend James “Lights Out” Toney.
Couture’s form
It’s first worth looking at the 47-year-old Couture’s recent career. The fighter is actually on a two-fight win streak. After losing two fights in a row, including what was arguably the best fight of 2009 against Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, the fighter took on Brandon Vera at UFC 105. Vera, a dangerous striker, saw his celebrated Muay Thai nullified by Couture’s Greco-Roman wrestling ability, as Couture pressed the younger fighter up against the cage and used his dirty boxing and knees to grind out a close decision. He then took on Mark Coleman, another aging legend, in what was never a competitive fight. Couture did exactly what he was expected and took an easy victory, choking Coleman unconscious.
Many are expecting that Couture will simply take down Toney immediately with a double-leg takedown. But that’s actually not Couture’s style. Greco-Roman wrestling only targets the upper body, so it’s much more likely we’ll see him try to control Toney in the clinch, and use his celebrated dirty boxing and short knees to wear down Toney before hauling him down to the mat.
On the other hand, Couture is 47 years old and it has to catch up with him eventually. In his fight with Vera, he did show some vulnerability, getting dropped by the younger fighter. Couture’s chin isn’t what it once was, after taking years of punishment. Still, Couture is known for surviving this long in a brutal sport because he is such a smart fighter that sticks to his game plan. He won’t try and go out and swing with Toney, and he’ll give the boxer few opportunities.
Toney’s quest
For Toney, he’ll be coming into the cage as something of an unknown. At 41 years old, he’s considered to be way past his prime. He was one of the most naturally skilled boxers of the past two decades, with beautiful counters, head movements and shoulder rolls. So good in fact he largely survived despite never having great conditioning, slowly moving up from middleweight to heavyweight in the division.
But he’s been often out of shape, unmotivated and has struggled against even mid-level competition in the heavyweight division recently. Quite frankly at this point he’s arguably not even a top 40 heavyweight, though he’d have the natural talent to do better. But even Toney’s style, which involves planting his feet and fighting from the pocket using evasive head movement won’t be effective in countering the takedown. A fighter who backpedals behind a jab might have that advantage, but that’s not Toney’s style.
Betting advice
Toney could theoretically catch Couture with a punch in close and knock him out. But there’s really no good reason to think a faded Toney will catch him. There’s also no reason to think a few months of training in submission defence and wrestling for Toney is going to negate a lifetime’s worth of experience for Couture. The bookmakers have Couture as around a 6-1 favourite. He should be more like 10-1.
Put money on Couture in this one. If the prospect of only earning a 1/6 return bothers you, just add him to a parlay and use that as a multiplier for other potential winnings, because Couture is virtually a sure bet.
Tags: