UFC 118 preview: Kenny Florian vs Gray Maynard
While Saturday night’s UFC 118 card will be headlined by a lightweight title fight between B.J Penn and Frankie Edgar, it’s not the only promising 155lb division bout on the card. The card also features Kenny “KenFlo” Florian against Gray “The Bully” Maynard in a title eliminator bout.
The fight will provide an interesting mix of styles, and will largely revolve around Maynard’s ability to use his trademark wrestling to frustrate Florian.
Recent form
Florian was riding a win streak when he faced off against Penn for the title at UFC 101. He left humbled, with Penn knocking him down and choking him until he tapped in the fourth in his second unsuccessful title challenger. Since then though, he’s been solid, defeating Clay Guida, another strong wrestler, by rear-naked choke, and then pulling the same feat against Japanese star Takanori Gomi.
Maynard on the other hand is still a rising star despite being 31, and is 9-0 in his MMA career with significant victories over Roger Huerta, Dennis Siver and current champion Frankie Edgar in 2008. Most recently though he fought at Ultimate Fight Night 20, where despite coming in as a substantial favourite he only escaped with a very controversial split decision over Nate Diaz.
Style breakdown
After an early fight in the UFC, Florian, after finishing his opponent, yelled out during his interview “who wants to see fights finished at 155?”, congratulating himself for having done so. He’s been widely lampooned for the remark, but on Saturday it might just be the biggest difference between him and his opponent.
Of his 11 wins in the UFC, Florian has finished 10 of them, mostly by his submission of choice, the rear naked choke. He possesses solid kickboxing, using leg kicks to take the spring out of his opponent’s step, and he displayed in particular an excellent jab in his victory against Gomi. And his Brazilian jiu-jitsu is also excellent, allowing him to submit his foes.
Maynard on the other hand has had difficulty finishing. Of his seven UFC wins, six of them have come by way of decision, and his last two haven’t even been terribly conclusive, each being a split decision. Simply put, Maynard uses his wrestling to control opponents for 15 minutes but doesn’t have the power or BJJ acumen to stop them.
Betting advice
That disparity in finishing ability may be the difference here. There seems little question that Maynard will be able to take Florian down at some point throughout the fight. But if he can’t finish him, it gives Florian more time to use his jab and leg kicks to batter the wrestler, and possibly to seek a submission from the bottom. It’s possible of course that Maynard will be able to repeat what Sean Sherk accomplished when he dominated Florian for five rounds to beat him. But Florian is a much improved fighter since then, and along with Jon Fitch is probably the best fighter in the UFC not to hold or have held a belt.
Florian is the slight favourite here at 150, and seems like good money at that price. Bank on him to defeat Maynard and earn himself a third title shot.
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