UFC 119 Preview: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs Ryan Bader
The co-main event of the UFC 119 card, put on by the Ultimate Fighting Championships this Saturday in Indianapolis and broadcast on pay-per-view, features a classic match-up of a young mixed martial arts
prospect in 27-year-old Ryan Bader taking on a legend of the sport in 34-year-old Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Recent form
Nogueira is 19-3 overall in his MMA career, and his recent record is very difficult to read. He made his UFC debut in November 2009 at UFC 105, and it almost couldn’t have been more spectacular. He took on
feared striker Luis Cane, and crushed him in a devastating first-round knock out. Cane lasted all of two minutes with his fellow Brazilian, and fans were treated to a display of crisp boxing that revealed Nogueira’s fine form in amateur boxing was no fluke
(he’s medalled in the Pan American Games, and won gold in the South American games for Brazil).
He then took on Jason Brilz in his next fight as a huge favourite, but instead only scraped out a controversial split decision. He was at times knocked down and out-wrestled by Brilz and looked much worse
in the fight than he did against Cane. Many fans are wondering which recent version of Nogueira will show up: the devastating striker that destroyed Cane, or the tentative, slow 205 pounder that nearly got beat by an unknown fighter.
Bader’s trajectory on the other hand has only been up. Since he won the season eight tournament of The Ultimate Fighter he’s strung together four wins (including the finale) and faced gradually improving
competition throughout the period. He’s a perfect 11-0, and took on his biggest name to date in February with a third-round knock-out over Keith Jardine that has leap-frogged him into fringe title contention. He only seems to be getting better every fight,
with tightened striking and better cardio.
Style
Expect a wrestling vs Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) showdown at this one. Nogueira is famous, along with his twin brother Rodrigo, for using his black belt in BJJ to avoid damage and control his opponents on
the ground.
Bader on the other hand is a former Division I NCAA college wrestler with good takedowns and top control. He holds a UFC win over Vinny Magalhaes, another BJJ black belt.
Each of them possesses good punching ability. Bader has more speed and power, but lacks the technical refinement of Nogueira. He’ll be trying to use his youth and speed to outfight Nogueira and catch him
the way Brilz did.
Nogueira on the other hand is very difficult to finish, with only one fighter ever having managed that feat. His iron chin poses problems for many people, and he’ll look to use his knees to the body and solid
overhands to batter Bader.
Prediction
Both of these fighters are coming in as fairly close on the odds sheet, with Bader a 5/9 favourite and Nogueira a 3/2 underdog.
Nogueira looks good for the upset here. He should be able to use better boxing to beat down Bader over the course of three rounds for a decision.
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