UFC 119 Preview: Melvin Guillard vs Jeremy Stephens
The Ultimate Fighting Championships, the world’s largest mixed martial arts promoter, is known for putting on both highly relevant fights that force a fighter to improve an aspect of his game, and the occasionally
fan-friendly slug fest. In what should be more of the latter than the former, lightweights (155lb) Melvin Guillard and Jeremy Stephens are set to face off at UFC 119 this Saturday in Indianapolis.
Style
No question about this one: it’s going to play out on the feet. Both these men have a set style - they like to avoid the ground game as much as possible and hurt their opponents on the feet. Both made improvements
to their wrestling and submission grappling since joining the UFC (in fights where the UFC has forced them to test their less-developed skills), but both are undoubtedly stand-up fighters first and foremost.
Guillard, having compiled a 24-8-2 record despite being just 27, has huge power in his hands and solid, aggressive stand-up that has seen him rack up 14 knock-out victories. At 5ft 9in he’s not a tall lightweight
and used to fight at higher weight classes, meaning his body is fairly muscle bound.
Along with his fists, he’s attempted to improve his submission defence since moving to Greg Jackson’s camp in Albuquerque, earning a blue belt in the process. But make no mistake about it - submissions are
his weakness. Of his eight career losses, seven have come by submission, including his last six losses in a row.
Stephens possesses more of a technical Muay Thai striking style to Guillard’s heavy handed boxing prowess. Stephens recently displayed this in a decision victory in Montreal at UFC 113 over Sam Stout in what
was largely a technical kickboxing match up. He controls the range well and uses good kicks to target the legs and body of his opponents and also has proven knock-out power with 13 of his 18 wins (he’s 18-5 overall) coming by way of TKO or KO.
He also probably possesses a slightly better ground game than Guillard, though like Guillard, the 24-year-old also has submission defence as his major weakness. Of his five losses, three of them have come
by way of submission.
Recent form
Both these men are coming into the fight after wins. Guillard has looked good since 2007, going 5-1 in that span with two knock-outs, three decision wins and one submission loss. He last won at UFC 114 with
a beautiful knee to the body that crumpled his opponent, Waylon Lowe to the canvas to earn him the victory.
Stephens has also won two in a row. Aside from his aforementioned match with Stout, he took out Justin Buchholz in the first round in September 2009, earning him the knock-out of the night honours as well,
though he’s only 3-3 in his last six.
Prediction and betting odds
Guillard comes in as roughly a 4/6 favourite, whereas Stephens is more like a 7/5 underdog on most lines.
Stephens’ superior discipline and perhaps slight advantage on the ground should see him pick up the upset victory, so he’s the better bet here.
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