UFC 121 Preview: Brendan Schaub vs Gabriel Gonzaga
At the Ultimate Fighting Championships’ UFC 121 card, fans will get to see the pay-per-view card kick off with a heavyweight tilt between The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) season 10 finalist Brendan Schaub (6-1)
and UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5). The two will square off on 23 October.
Gonzaga the gatekeeper
Gonzaga’s biggest claim to fame was his spectacular derailing of Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic’s fight career with a crushing head kick in 2007 at UFC 70, which shocked the world and earned him a title shot,
as well as moving him to 4-0 in the UFC. But he then lost in his title bout to Randy Couture, and then suffered an upset to Fabricio Werdum. The UFC gave him two easy bounce back fights, which he duly won, and then a chance to step it up again against Shane
Carwin. He was knocked out in the first round. They gave him another easy fight to recover, which he won, then gave him a very tough fight against Junior Dos Santos, which he lost again by first-round KO.
All this has given Gonzaga the reputation of a gatekeeper, or a fighter who can win against weaker opponents but can’t, KO of Filipovic aside, take the next step up, as well as being a fighter who wilts under
pressure.
Brendan Schaub
Schaub doesn’t quite fit either of the moulds of the higher-level fighter or the rookie of the division. He’s somewhere in between, with a 2-1 record in the UFC. The former pro football league player made
it into the finals of TUF 10 only to be knocked out by Roy Nelson. He’s since come back with a vengeance though, stopping his next two opponents in around a minute each.
A win over Gonzaga would move him up the ladder in a big way. At 27, he’s got the potential to make a title run, but he’s got a hugely risky fight ahead of him.
Style, odds and prediction
Gonzaga has, at least on paper, some of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) in the mixed martial arts world. He has very good credentials as a black belt, with prestigious outright wins or very high finishes
in top international competitions.
But in the cage, his BJJ hasn’t really been as big a factor as it is for other top grapplers. Instead he relies on his heavy hands and feet and brute strength to punish opponents.
Schaub is fast and agile, and also has some very good hands, with a solid amateur boxing record. Also his ground game is ever improving, and while he only possesses a purple belt in BJJ, he has the athletic
ability to use scrambles off the mat should he need to.
Gonzaga is the favourite in this one at around 5/8, while Schaub pays out around 7/5.
If this ends in the first round, either man has the knock-out power to put the other to sleep. But Gonzaga slows in the second round and begins to wilt if he’s hit hard enough.
Look for Schaub to survive a close first round to take over increasingly in the second and pick up the win.
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