UFC 121 Preview: Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez
It’s the behemoth facing off against the smaller, speedier opponent. It's the champion, as dominant as any in Ultimate Fighting Championships’ history, against the undefeated newcomer looking to make his
mark. In short, it’s Brock Lesnar (5-1) against CainVelasquez (8-0), and it’s happening on Saturday 23 October, at UFC 121 for the UFC heavyweight title.
Lesnar’s story has been one of a quick, stunning success. He joined the UFC from the pro wrestling world with a 1-0 pro record, but after falling to a quick submission by Frank Mir in his
UFC debut, he has been unstoppable.
He crushed Heath Herring over three rounds. Then he took on champion Randy Couture, and took the belt from him. He defended it in a rematch against Mir at UFC 100, the promotion’s biggest event, and utterly
crushed Mir. Finally, after a struggle with intestinal disease, he defended his belt again against Shane Carwin after having been brutally beaten in the first round, only to come back with a second round submission win at UFC 116.
But if Lesnar’s been occupying the spot at the top since just his fourth professional fight, Velasquez hasn’t been wasting any time. Joining the UFC with a record of 2-0, he rolled through his first three
UFC opponents, then took a big step up against Cheick Kongo, out-wrestling him over three rounds to get the decision, despite having been
badly hurt several times in the fight.
He then took on Ben Rothwell, and dominated him utterly in the first round before the ref stopped the fight prematurely in the second. But his inability to knock out either Rothwell or Kongo had some fans
labelling him as a 'pillow-fisted' fighter (one who doesn't have legit knockout power).
To prove them wrong, he crushed the legend, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, in his next fight to earn the title shot.
Both these men were high-level collegiate wrestlers. But Lesnar, who typically has to cut up to 20 pounds to reach the heavyweight limit of 265, will be much heavier than Velasquez, who weighs around 240.
Lesnar will have the size and strength advantage, while Velasquez will have to rely on his speed and agility.
The interesting thing in this fight might be the stand-up striking battle. Lesnar has heavy hands, long reach and big power. His technical striking ability is good, but not great, and he showed some vulnerability,
as he was tagged multiple times by Carwin in his last fight.
But Velasquez is somewhat more unknown. After having shown average stand-up throughout his career, he contrastingly looked very sharp on his feet in his last fight, with crisp combos, good leg kicks and overall
speed, allowing him to destroy Nogueira in the first round.
Lesnar comes into the fight as a 2/3 favourite, while Velasquez is the 6/5 underdog.
Since the popular wisdom is that Velasquez’s excellent cardio is his best chance to win, as he’ll have to outwork Lesnar over five rounds to slowly tire the bigger fighter out en route to a win.
Frankly, there's no evidence that Velasquez’s cardio is the better of the two men. Also, Lesnar’s size and strength advantage will be too much for the smaller fighter to handle. Expect a valiant effort
from Velasquez, but ultimately a win for Lesnar. Even as the favourite, Lesnar is the better bet here.
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