UFC 123 Preview: Matt Hughes vs B.J. Penn III
Everybody loves a good rubber match. When two greats hold a win over the other, the third match can become the way to determine who truly is best. At UFC 123 on Saturday, two all-time greats B.J. Penn and
Matt Hughes will battle at welterweight (170lb) to see who can take the series.
History
Just a year ago, this fight would have seemed to be a foregone conclusion. Fans clamoured for it as a chance to see Penn erase what they said was a fluke victory in the second match for Hughes. But the reality
is complicated.
At the time of their first meeting
Penn was actually a lightweight (155lb) who’d twice failed to capture that division’s belt. The UFC”s lightweight division had been put on hiatus, so Penn moved up to welterweight in 2004 to challenge
the dominant Hughes, and scored a huge upset victory to win the belt. But he then vacated it to go fight in Japan, and Hughes captured the vacant belt. Penn returned at UFC 63 in 2006 and challenged Hughes again.
There he dominated in the first two rounds, and beat on Hughes in the second and then nearly submitted him, but Hughes was saved by the bell. But by the beginning of the third round, Penn was out of gas and
Hughes had an easy time taking him down and pounding him out.
Penn’s supporters maintained that Hughes had gotten lucky because Penn had suffered a rib injury while beating on Hughes in the second, which sapped his strength. Others countered that Penn had simply fallen
victim to poor conditioning on his part and determination on that of Hughes.
Since then they went in different directions, with Hughes losing his title belt and seemingly fading away while Penn won the lightweight belt and looked unstoppable. But Penn has now lost two fights in a
row, while Hughes has seen something of a resurgence, winning three fights in a row. Fans who a year ago who might have predicted an easy Penn win in a hypothetical rubber match now aren’t so sure.
Style breakdown, odds and prediction
Penn is now around a 3/5 favourite whereas Hughes is a 4/3 underdog. Hughes will be coming into this fight much bigger, around 185lb after post weigh-in rehydration, while Penn has said he’ll be entering
the cage at 165lb.
Hughes’ bread and butter has always been his wrestling, mixed with his ground-and-pound. He also has a highly underrated submission game, which has seen him finish top opponents like Ricardo Almeida, Georges
St-Pierre and Frank Trigg (twice.)
Some have lauded Hughes’ stand-up as having vastly improved after a knockout of Renzo Gracie and a knockdown of Almeida, but that’s probably overstated and Penn will have the clear advantage. Penn has very
fast hands and good head movement.
Penn’s advantage will also be his takedown defence, and also his ability to sweep from the bottom with his excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills.
While Penn is coming off of two straight losses and Hughes off three straight wins, and Penn will be much lighter, Penn should have the advantage here. Penn’s real struggles have come against lighter opponents
who can outspeed him, and not fighters like Hughes. Bet on Penn at these odds.
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