UFC 123 preview: Quinton Jackson vs Lyoto Machida
In the main event of UFC 123 on Saturday 20 November, fans will be treated to a light heavyweight (205lb) fight between two fighters with very different styles, Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida and Quinton “Rampage”
Jackson.
Recent history
Both these men are coming off of high-profile losses. Machida captured the UFC belt with an incredible performance at UFC 98 in May 2009, but his first title defence resulted in a highly controversial
decision win over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, which had the UFC book an immediate rematch in May 2010 as most commentators thought Shogun should have earned the decision. In the rematch, Shogun left no doubts and knocked Machida out quickly, taking his belt and
dropping the Shogun to (16-1).
Jackson (30-8) had two wins in a row against Wanderlei Silva and Keith Jardine when he decided to take an extended hiatus to film a movie, which had him out of action for over a year, between March 2009 and
May 2010. In May he came back and lost a unanimous decision to arch rival Rashad Evans, putting in a relatively lacklustre performance.
Style breakdown, odds and prediction
The old mixed martial arts adage is that “styles make fights,” and this one is no exception. Jackson has been a top level light heavyweight for a very long time, since he was knocking people out in Japan.
Back then his impressive wrestling ability and his propensity to slam opponents earned him the nickname “Slampage,” but for a few years now his wrestling has fallen by the wayside, and he relies more or less entirely on his fists.
Fortunately for Jackson, he hits harder than virtually anybody in the light heavyweight division, and also possesses pretty good boxing technique to go along with it. He’s hard to knock out, and though his
wrestling isn’t as prominent anymore he can take fighters down and has good take-down defence. His main downside is that he’s not terribly agile on the feet, and doesn’t close the distance well enough, instead moving relatively slowly in the ring.
Where Jackson uses brute power and moves slowly, Machida is quite the opposite. He is the only high-level Shotokan Karate in the UFC today, and uses his fighting style to leap in and tag opponents quickly
and then leap out. He possesses very good straight punches and body kicks, as well as excellent knees from the clinch. That last talent may be crucial as Jackson has shown a vulnerability to knees in the past, most infamously taking 17 consecutive knees from
Wanderlei Silva before falling through the ropes unconscious in one of the most famous losses in MMA history.
Machida also possesses good trip takedowns and a pretty good ground game, but the real question is whether he’ll want to try and engage in close with Jackson, or simply try and stay on the outside and use
his superior speed to outpoint Jackson.
If Machida does stay on the outside, he should be able to take the victory. But Jackson isn’t one to be counted out, and with two consecutive camps he should be back in shape from his lay-off.
The odds for this one are Machida as around a 2/5 favourite, with Jackson as around a 9/4 underdog. Machida should win this, but a small bet on Jackson given the odds might be worth it.
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