UFC Ultimate Fight Night 22 Preview: Jim Miller vs Gleison Tibau
In the early unregulated days of mixed martial arts, any two fighters could step into the cage together, regardless of size difference. It made for the kind of incredible mismatches that prompted calls for regulation and the creation of weight classes, which are supposed to make sure everybody fights someone the same size.
But that only works to a point. Take the Gleison Tibau-Jim Miller fight set to take place Wednesday night at Ultimate Fight Night 22, put on the Ultimate Fighting Championships. Miller is like most lightweights, meaning he usually cuts weight from around 165lb or so to get to the limit of 155 before rehydrating. His opponent, Tibau, is a lightweight behemoth, weighing over 180lb before he steps into the cage, having cut vast amounts of weight and then rehydrating himself.
That may be the key to this fight. Tibau has a powerful wrestling game that he’s effectively used to put his opponents on their backs and hold them their, while working to either pound them out, submit them or win a decision. He’s 7-4 in the UFC as well, with wins over some tough competitors like Terry Etim and Jeremy Stephens.
The huge amount of weight cutting can also have the negative effect of slowing down a fighter in the later rounds, as was the case when Tibau fought Nick Diaz and lost in the second round after having dominated the first. But recently his cardio has improved, making him a threat.
Miller on the other hand is an even more impressive 6-1 in the UFC. He also possesses a good wrestling base, but his main attack comes from his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu attack. Before he came to the UFC he submitted virtually all of his opponents, but since coming to the world’s largest MMA promotion he’s only submitted two foes in his seven fights. But BJJ is good for more than just getting the tap-out, as he’s able to effectively use his hips to advance position and control the posture of his opponents.
Miller is on a four fight win streak, with victories over Mark Bocek, Duane Ludwig and Mac Danzig in that period. His most recent victory was over Bocek in March, but it was criticised by some analysts as having been questionable.
Fight outlook and betting odds
For the bookmakers, this fight is tilted slightly towards Miller, with his better win-loss record inside the octagon.
The real question is whether Miller can avoid being overpowered by Tibau. If he’s able to conserve his energy, perhaps be willing to give up the first round in order to tire the Brazilian out, he can come back in the second and third and attempt to submit Tibau or win a decision.
Miller should be good enough to do that. A seven-fight veteran of his calibre with a slick BJJ game should be able to control the larger fighting and outwork him for a decision. Look for Miller to take this one.
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