We cannot accurately predict the weather a week in advance, How can we have faith in climate predictions?

Question

It's simple, For that last two weeks, in my area, the weather forcasters have been way off base. They say rain, and it doesn't, they say partly sunny and it rains. It's almost comical.

If the complexities of weather confound weather experts to the point where they cannot accurately predict weather a week in advance, then how can anyone place faith in climate models and much longer term predictions. The complexities of the short term are miniscule compared to the complexities of the long term. Only political or economic motives could influence a true scientist to state a theory that is far from being proven as fact. AGW alarmist wonder how we can doubt a consensus of scientists? It's easy, a consensus isn't a scientific term, it's political. I have read many articles and there is a re-occuring sentiment that always sticks with me. It was summed up best by one scientist, who stated something along the lines of....."the more we learn, the more we realize how little we know".

Answer 1

Meteorology and climatology are completely different.  It's easier to predict long-term trends than short-term variations.

One analogy I like to use is gambling.  On any given bet or over any given day, you have no idea if you'll come out with more or less money than you started with.  But if you gamble in the casinos long enough, over the long run you can be sure you'll end up losing money.

Same thing with the stock market.  There are tons of factors which make it unpredictable on a daily or weekly or even monthly basis.  But in the long term, you know it's going to go up.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJ...

Also, scientists have been modelling warming since the late 1980s.  So far their models have been very accurate:

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2008/0...

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2008/03/26/r...

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/arc...

Answer 2

This section is on global warming.  You're confusing it with weather.

When untra-conservatives like Newt Gingrich and Pat Robertson volunteer to be in Al Gore's public service announcements, you know that we have an unusual issue with absolutely no political division:

"Some advertisements will feature bipartisan pairs, such as the Rev. Al Sharpton with Pat Robertson and Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with former GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich..."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080331/ap_o...

The broad understanding that global warming is happening and that it is not a political issue is reflected in detailed polls:

"Seven out of ten Americans surveyed believe that global warming is probably happening. Seventy-one percent say that global warming is probably happening, 6 percent believe it is probably not happening, and 23 percent are unsure. This includes an 81-to-3 percent margin among Democrats, a 75-to-4 percent margin among independents, and a 56-to-13 percent margin among Republicans."

http://www.fightglobalwarming.com/conten...

There's an interesting correllation that the same percentage of people don't believe that the Apollo landings happened:

"A 1999 poll by the The Gallup Organization found that 89 percent of the US public believed the landing was genuine, while 6 percent did not..."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Moon...

Apparently about 5-6% of population are unable to grasp science and would rather believe in a government plot.  Thank goodness the United States is a republic and not a direct democracy, where ignorant and paranoid people like that could actually have some say in how the country is run.

Answer 3

you can't predict mother nature

Answer 4

Also the green house gas that is supposed to caused GW. The gas is not there go measure it.

Answer 5

Because with climate prediction you can't really be wrong.  If your prediction SEEMS wrong, you can just claim it's the weather and not climate.

Answer 6

I can't tell you what the temperature in my area will be on July 8th, but I can confidently tell you that it will be warmer (by a statistically significant amount) than December 14th.  That's the difference between weather and climate.

Short-term weather related events are very chaotic, but July is always warmer than December.  Climate is the average of weather in a region over a 30 year period. The chaos and noise isn't a factor in long-term shifts.

Answer 7

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/11...

"Climate and weather are very different things, and the level of predictability is comparably different."

"Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time -- generally around 30 years. This averaging smooths out the random and unpredictable behaviour of weather. Think of it as the difference between trying to predict the height of the fifth wave from now versus predicting the height of tomorrow's high tide. The former is a challenge -- to which your salty, wet sneakers will bear witness -- but the latter is routine and reliable."

"This is not to say it's easy to predict climate changes. But seizing on meteorologists' failures to cast doubt on a climate model's 100-year projection is an argument of ignorance."

Answer 8

'Lack of substantial doubt

In its strongest form, the term is used to assert that on a given question scientists within a particular field of science have reached an agreement of rational opinion without substantial doubt, through a process of experimentation and peer review.'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_...