Weather forecasts?

Question

How do you look at weather forecasrs?

Since it will be very illogical to think and pinpoint exactly the kind of weather on the street you are living, how do you study the weather forecasts and know roughly whether it affects you or not?

Say if you live in a street in Kansas City, the weather report says there will be a thunderstorm and rain on the following day, you wait and wait still it was shining brightly and not a single sign that it will rain, at the end of the day it didn't rain at all? Can I say that the weather forecasts at kansas city is flawed?

On the other hand, since weather forecasts cover an entire area, and the wind will blow wherever it goes, is it ok to assume that since rain doesn't remain static it will continue to rain from one area of kansas city and move on to another part of kansas city, therefore the weather forecasts is correct in saying that there's thunderstorm tomorrow albeit it didn't fall on the particular street you are living.

Answer 1

You have a very good point here. Looking at the "big picture" one can forecast that rain associated with e.g. a front, will have to pass over an area, thus it will rain.

... most probably.

Weather for aviators and seafarers are usually more detailed and a TAF may read: PROB30 1016 TS. It means, 30% probability to see between 10:00 and 16:00 UTC thunderstorms. It is then up to the pilot to take the chance to fly during that time.

Thunderstorms are probably the hardest to figure because they need:

Very cold air at the top, or mountains - and

Sufficient moist and warm air at the base.

That will fuel a convection that will create a small cumulus cloud that will grow into a cumulonimbus (raining cumulus) and if the air is transported all the way to the top of the tropopause, it will end as a thunderstorm.

But how much energy is available is very difficult to forecast. Remember that if lightning has enough energy to provide electricity to an average town for one year, the law of energy conservation says that it has to come from somewhere. And that 'somewhere' is heat and moisture. The latter because the adiabatic cooling of moist air is much slower than dry air.

Answer 2

im sorry what was the question