Were the climate change "experts" wrong?

Question

in 2006 the Guardian newspaper reported how scientists using "giant computer programmes" warned that every British summer from then onwards would be so severely drought-stricken that water would have to be restricted. The blanket of carbon dioxide would become so bad that "our climate destiny is fixed."

The following two winters (ie June to September) were the wettest I can ever remember, with many people left homeless after flooding. So far this winter, it has rained almost continually.

Answer 1

There are people who wish to gain control over you through the use of fear. It used to be h**l-fire. That stopped working, so now they use global warming.

We are constantly being lied to in order to control our thoughts.

Answer 2

Or not.  

Maybe the Guardian does not keep the stories up on its website.

Answer 3

I stole Jerry Lee's idea and took it a step further.  I did a more generic search for "British summer drought" (without the quotation marks).

This might be the article to which you were referring:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20...

Or maybe this one:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/j...

I am not seeing the phrases you put in quotes, and I am not seeing any concrete predictions like the ones you seem to remember.

Answer 4

Yes exactly,in the 1970's scientists said we were heading for a new ice age now it's global warming or climate change as it seems they cannot make their minds up what is really happening if anything at all,as a 40 something the weather or climate seems the same now as it was 10,20 or 30 years ago but who am i to argue with so called experts.

Answer 5

"  The American Physical Society, an organization representing nearly 50,000 physicists, has reversed its stance on climate change and is now proclaiming that many of its members disbelieve in human-induced global warming.

In a posting to the APS forum, editor Jeffrey Marque explains,"There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.""

Answer 6

even if the earth is just going thru a cycle on it's own the fact that we are polluting and using up non renewable resources is still a problem.  I have pictures of an island with no people living on it that is full of plastic that washed up from the ocean and that plastic causes the death of too much marine life.  we live in a place that has brown sky and brown rivers and brown ocean......they used to be blue.  there are people all over the world dying of starvation and dehydration everyday.  that means because someone doesn't think it's a problem, people die because they don't have any drinkable water.  we can call it whatever they want but we (meaning the people who don't think it's a problem) need to make changes to our living habits in order that people in your area can be helped to build in ways that avoid homelessness.  whatever they call it your point is well made and am sorry we aren't doing more to address these concerns.  Here in the US we just dump our money into rich peoples pockets.  we need to change our system.

Answer 7

The same kind of thing happened after Katrina.  All the 'experts' predicted more and bigger storms the following year, and drove up the price of oil (which is what they had in mind to do).  

The year after Katrina was the lightest hurricane season in history.  There is no way of predicting this kind of thing.  The earth will do as it pleases and we clearly have no input.

Answer 8

I think that report you read was wrong. And Global Warming doesn't mean it will get warmer.

Also, just how much of this climate change is due to us? After all, the desert was once a lush green forest - waaaay before pollution. I'm not saying we aren't at fault - I know we are, but we ought to remember that everything changes naturally anyway.

Answer 9

Scientist looking into the crystal ball to predict the weather is impossible

Answer 10

I don't think any scientist would be so emphatic about saying "every summer", sounds more like a media person unfamiliar with how weather and climate relate.

But yes, the scientists were wrong if you consider current events.

The Arctic sea ice is melting back decades faster than the early models showed.

The Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets are showing surface melts over huge areas, this is all unpredicted by those early models.

The models being used today are getting down to the kilometer scale for local weather in some areas of the world. This is the first time they've had that resolution.

La Ninas increase drought in many areas of the US, as well as increasing spring season tornados.

El Ninos are worse overall for most of the world's economies and both are affected by heating the surface waters. This doesn't necessarily increase the number of strong storms, but it will increase the severity of them according to all the data so far collected.

The flooding and all relate to both global heating, warmer air heats the ocean and can carry more of the evaporation aloft, and to the ENSO and other oceanic oscillations that combine to affect severe weather patterns that are strengthened by the warmer oceanic water globally.

Sea level is rising, that's the clue we're out of control, humanity must stabilize sea level, it must do this by re-balancing a huge heat-transfer engine that we live on.

Right now the gas balance of the planet is way off, the history of CO2 from ice cores shows the past half million years oscillating below 300ppm while today it's near 380ppm.

Even if we instantly remove that excess, all of our power plants and machines typically heat the universe twice the amount you get for useful work. This means a 1,000 megawatt nuclear plant puts 2,000 megawatts directly into the world as waste heat.

Cars burn a high energy fuel and likewise put most of it into heating the universe.

So, the ultimate challenge isn't merely to remove excess emissions, it's also to have to redesign the way all of our major enery using systems work.

The historical view I have as an industrial designer is that our current era is the first one for machines, where thermodynamics were ignored.

We are now ready to begin a new era of machine design that will take the currently huge loss to entropy and convert the waste heat into useful work.

This is way, way more difficult than switching fuels ...

As a geologist, the view is that we have already stepped way over the line and politics has taken over with rhetoric, using the media, to cloud the underlying issues and urgency to correct our systems now that we know what's going on.

As a physicist, the view is that we have to develop machines with thermodynamics considered for every detail to actually prevent global heating.

Until we can stop the ocean from rising we are failing, that's the indicator, it's easy to measure and is being measured more accurately now with additional satellites and buoys deployed globally for this specific purpose.

As a person thinking about it, we need to also develop economic systems that don't waste human lives, they are far more valuable than gold, and that don't go around destroying the place.

Answer 11

as mentioned above this is your link.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/j...

however, you might keep in mind that warmer winters can be wetter.

the warmer air is, the more water it can hold, and thus there can be more snow and/or rain.

that is, unless the prevailing wind is driving moisture laden air away from you, in which case, no matter how much water is in the air, it's not going to rain on you.

your comment, "The following two winters (ie June to September)" is interesting.  as i recall, the article talked about GB, where winter is Dec-Mar.  however, you seem to be talking about some place like Australia.  however, Australia has been in the news related to global warming recently.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/global-warmin...

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/artic...

Answer 12

If the global warming climatologists predict hotter temperatures and less rainfall and they get cooler temperatures and more rainfall, it's a bit of a stretch to say it's consistant with their theories.  

I think they've learned their lesson now and will avoid making predicitons that will be proved one way or the other during their careers.

Answer 13

I don't suppose you have a link to the supposed 2006 article which actually says that do you?  Because without any actual evidence to support your assertion, it's much more likely that you are simply remembering poorly (an easy thing to do when it comes to 2 year old articles).

No climate scientist would make such an absolute statement about "every British summer".  Climate change is about long-term trends, and everyone in the field is well aware of wide variations in short-term weather.

Edit:

Looks like Jerry Lee has proved beyond a doubt that the Guardian never published any stories about "giant computer programmes"  ;-)

Answer 14

yes they had a motive to reduce fossil fuel use so they went out and found what sounded good. That is not how scientist do it.. They used temperatures from uncalibrated thermometers . And back then it was impossible to get the accuracy to less than + - 2 deg. F. So there data was garbage .

Then the CO2 was a poor choice as plants recycle the CO2 to O2 for us. The [lant keeps the C as food but when the plant dies what is left will break down into oil & gas...

Answer 15

The beauty of the new global weather crisis fearmongers is that they can blame ANY weather event on global warming somehow.

Answer 16

I haven't looked for 'giant computer programs', but it appears as if there were serious concerns in the UK about an impending drought.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20...

Edit 1:  Got it!

"Peering into the future is a tricky business, especially for something as volatile as weather and climate. But scientists know a lot about how events will unfold. They use giant computer programs........."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2006/j...

Answer 17

people just like a crisis, something to talk and whinge about. Global warming was never really happening. People are just suckers, like everyone now panicking about gas going up by 70% yes it may rise a little but they just like to dramatise everything.

Answer 18

No.

It seems clear that this article was just speculating on possible scenarios, and in no way making absolute predictions.

"Here, we present a picture of what might happen in Britain over the next century if the world fails to take serious action..."

Scientists around the world say global warming will lead to more extreme weather as a general rule.  That's pretty much a no brainer, since heat fuels weather systems.  Here's the US take:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008...