Westwood and Mick with most to gain at Pebble Beach
This week's US Open Championship could result in a telling, perhaps decisive, shift in the status of golf's greatest practitioners.
Phil Mickelson has already won this year's Masters in daring fashion; based on his and Tiger Woods' respective fortunes on the fairways, Mick is surely the de facto No. 1 in the world.
According to the rankings though, Tiger Woods remains the official numero uno - for another few days, at least.
Mickelson doesn't even need to win at Pebble Beach; a place in the top three, along with a finish outside the top 20 for Woods, would guarantee him that long-dreamed of first place, though he surely wouldn't turn his nose up at a first US Open win either.
So is this major shaping up to be a cakewalk for Mickelson then? The Californian's record at the major is impressive but ultimately frustrating, with the 40-year-old finishing as runner up at the tournament five times. His most recent near miss came last year at Bethpage, where he was beaten by Lucas Glover. So can he push onto the next level this week?
Mickelson has already played at Pebble Beach once this year, tying for eighth place at the AT & T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am in February, but he started the year slowly; more recently, he came second at Quail Hollow, beaten only by Rory McIlroy's brilliant final round. And at his last tournament two weeks ago, Mickelson was fifth; in the same tournament, Woods could only tie for 19th place.
That result could simply reflect a transient loss of form, or Woods may never again reach the stratospheric heights that saw him win at Pebble Beach by 15 strokes at the 2000 US Open. Either way, Mickelson would certainly appear to be the better bet this week. Woods may remain second or even joint favourite, according to some markets’ rather frugal estimates, but on current form the 34-year-old will surely have his work cut out to end the tournament with a top-five finish.
Not that Mickelson can expect to have everything his own way, even if the threat from Tiger is much diminished. Lee Westwood's record may be impressive but it is also a source of pain for the Englishman; a runner-up and two third-place finishes in his last three majors suggests he is simultaneously in the form of his life, and incapable of closing the biggest wins.
But with victory at the St Jude Classic this weekend - his first on the PGA Tour for 12 years, and only his second-ever in the US - might the 37-year-old have cracked even that nut?
While I firmly believe the current world No. 3 will figure highly here, that victory at TPC Southwind last weekend isn't quite the conclusive victory Westwood-watchers will have been hoping for. By any reasonable yardstick, Westwood was out of the running having led earlier in the competition as Sunday's play wound down, Robert Garrigus needing only to double bogey the final hole of the final round to be assured of a win - and condemn Westwood to another runner-up placing.
Instead, Garrigus choked spectacularly, hitting a triple bogey which condemned him to a play-off - and which he lost on the first extra hole. True, Westwood still needed to beat Sweden's Robert Karlsson in order to claim the win, and certainly every trophy counts, but the manner of his victory just doesn't stack up as evidence that the man has learned to tough it out when the stakes are at their highest.
Westwood tees off in the same group as Woods and Ernie Els on Thursday and Friday. While the world looks on expectedly, waiting for Mickelson to topple Woods from the top spot, if Westwood can outplay his partners and produce a good enough showing (and if Mickelson fails to shine) the 37-year-old from Worksop could supplant Mickelson as No. 2 in the world.
While we'd love to see Westwood take that first major victory, though, we've a suspicion that the each-way punter may end up rather happier than Westwood himself once again come the end of play on Sunday.
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