What'll happen when all the oil runs out?

Question

I'm not just talking about energy, we all know about the alternatives.

But what about plastics, helium and other products that we rely on crude oil for?

Answer 1

then we'll just have to smoke weed

Answer 2

Good old lovely wooden objects.

Answer 3

Big business already have things up their sleaves.  Just like the oil sands in Canada and taking coal and changing it to oil.  It has been around for decades but, until they can make their big $$$$.   Just watch as one problem after another will be solved it will just cost us a little more each and every time.

Answer 4

When this happens...it will be so far in the future that plastics and other such patroleum-dependent products will have been replaced by some process or substance that we cannot possible imagine now.....Just think....even as recently as 200 years ago...did man anticipate anything made of plastic or polymers?

I imagine life will be as different 200 years from now as it is currently different than 200 years ago.

Answer 5

Oil industry figures I've seen estimate they think that we (everyone) will be facing severely depleated oil reserves in the second half of this century.

Many here are young enough to expect to live beyond 2050.

(Coal reserves on the other hand are expected to last another 250 years.)

One good reason to look at developing alternative fuel and energy sources now is because they will take time to develop and roll out. Every past technological evolution has shown this.  It took decades for steam technology to take off in every country, it took decades more for the combustion engine to replace it. Another example: Only 1/2 the world's population currently own a mobile phone, something we now consider essential. Less than 1/2 currently have internet access and so on.

If we don't think and plan ahead we really are asking for major problems when we hit the point of shrinking oil reserves and increasingly higher prices, not just for fuel but for goods, transport etc.

Answer 6

we all walk

Answer 7

We should all revert back to the ways of the cavemen! Although sometimes i think some people already have...

Answer 8

By that time other things will have been invented, we will adapt

Answer 9

can you say giddiup horsey?????

Answer 10

Don't worry miladdo - you won't be around when that time comes - and by then we will have alternative sources for all we need.

Answer 11

the lights go out!

Answer 12

Perhaps we'll have to rely on the methane gas from cows.   That certainly would be a renewable alternative to oil.

Answer 13

A good question.  But the problems start long before the oil runs out.

Oil, natural gas, coal and uranium are all fossil fuels that were formed during an earlier stage of the earth’s development.  They are no longer being formed and so we are bound to run short of them eventually.

Those who say these resources will not run out for many years are right in a sense but they are overlooking the fact that they are getting much more expensive already.  For example, the oil companies used to extract oil with very little expense from abundent wells on land.  Next they had to turn to more costly deep sea sources and then even more costly arctic resources.  Now they are talking about extracting the oil from tar sands at enormous cost and with huge environmental damage.  And all this has happened in a few decades in which we have wasted a scarce resource because it was cheap.

So what will happen when it becomes much more expensive, in around five years time (as I said the price increases have already begun)?  It depends upon whether we act quickly to anticipate the new situation or whether we wait until the resources are hugely more expensive.

If we wait then we can expect massive social and economic upheaval resulting in worldwide recession, unemployment and war.  But it is not too late to adjust to a way of life that it is not reliant on burning these increasingly scarce resources.

We need to stop burning oil in cars and planes and travel less, walk and pedal more, and adopt simpler lifestyles rather than continue with consumerism.  We must also use technology to assist us in replacing fossil fuels.

The good news is that the simpler lifestyle is far more fun than seeking to keep up with the neighbours.  Walking and cycling will also make us fitter to enjoy other activities like singing and dancing.

There is no need for a depression because there is a lot of work to be done building the new electricity generators to exploit wave, tide, wind, hydro and solar energy.  Towns and cities also need to be redesigned to minimise the need for travel and to minimise energy use.  But we must start now if we are to achieve a comfortable transition.  The longer we leave it the more uncomfortable it will get - and not just for our children and grandchildren; the problems are already beginning.

Why are governments not doing more?  Because they are afraid to tell us that change is necessary.  That is why they appointed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to report on what needs doing.  But if ordinary people set an example by adopting simpler lifestyles and by saving energy it will demonstrate to governments that there are votes in sustainable policies.

I am glad you have recognised the problem and I hope you will be helping to set the example.  It is an exciting challenge.

Best wishes for a simpler life.

Answer 14

dont worry they will make plastics out of organic materials

Answer 15

We'll all be dead, why do you even worry. Let your children worry about it.

Answer 16

chemical composition from other alternatives,i.e. coal tar

besides,plastics recycling is also a way out.

Answer 17

Well, oil will never "run out" in the true sense of the word, like running out of cash or something. We have - very likely however - reached "Peak" which is - for our conversation - about the 1/2 way point of having used all the oil that will be available to us.

Before widespread use of oil, the Earth basically had about 3-4 trillion barrels of oil in total.

About 1/3 is unrecoverable - by which I mean that it falls into two categories,

A. the oil exists at such extremes of depth or whatever that it would cost more energy to get the oil out than to just leave it there.

B. the oil exists in some form (loose tar/clay sands) which would require more energy to make it usable than could be generated by using it.

Technically, the oil is there, but it's not REALLY helpful to us.

That leaves about 2.8 trillion barrels (to be charitable/optimistic). Over the last 150 years (prior to 1980), human civilization used about 1.1 trillion barrels of oil.

If we hold our current usage steady (its actually increasing nearly exponentially) we will use the remaining trillion within the next 30 years to the point where there is VERY little recoverable oil.

This anticipates optimistic discoveries of oil at about the same rate we make currently (this is not borne out as recently discovery rates for new oil reserves have plummeted even as dollars being put into exploration have soared).

To answer your question in some detail, our species has made a point of adapting to change, but it will require some serious changes on our part.

So what will happen - is what IS happening - the costs of gasoline and oil products will increase to the point where if you don't NEED to use them - you won't.

Over time some industry's will have to change nearly completely, cars in 50 years - if they still exist - will run on moonbeams, sunbeams, cow flatulence or "Mr. Fusions" but only rich folks will be able to "fill it up" at a gas-station.

There are alternatives available which will make our transition away from fossil fuels possible, Geothermal, Solar and Wind are just 3 which provide fixed energy under most circumstances - which is fit for most uses.

Farming and transportation are two areas where these solutions are not well addressed, Solar and electric plug-in vehicles  will need VERY efficient batteries - so expect to see cars/trucks and anything else running on plug-in variants of what exists today.

For example, the Prius mark 2, when it's sold next years will supposedly get something like 90+ miles per gallon. The difference between the mark 1 and mark 2 - a seriously pimped out battery system.

Plastics demand can be addressed to a large extent through recycling and remediation, - here again - costs would go up significantly but it would be possible to produce these products.

Also rubber and other products can be produced from biological sources, algae and bacteria as well as good old rubber plants, - so again - it would be more expensive/rare but possible.

Farming - on the other hand - is another matter. While the Amish and organic farmers can use non-oil intensive farming methods which do compare favorably to modern industrial argri-techniques, it is unclear that we can use these less/non oil intensive techniques in all the circumstances and areas we use agri-industrial methods today.

So I would guess that farming productivity would become constrained to those areas which are strictly and genuinely / naturally productive (such as parts of the Northeast US, Upper Midwest US, Sub Saharan Africa and Northern France/Germany/Bulgaria)

Places like India and especially China are utterly dependent on massive oil and energy inputs for water filtration and use, how well these countries fare without access to cheap oil - well let's just say it won't be pretty.

To answer your question better I recommend two books.

1. "The End of Oil" - my research began with this book, this makes a pained effort to avoid being alarmist but explains what the end of cheap oil means to everyone.

2. www.theoildrum.com - This is an AWESOME site for breaking news from the oil-resource problem.

3. "Twilight in the desert" - rather disturbing - since its premise - once derided by the oil companies as alarmist and nutty - has been borne out as being disturbingly accurate - regards the oil deposits of Saudi Arabia and their decrepit and declining conditions.

4. I hesitate to recommend this book since Mr. Kunstler clearly is "cheering on" the apocalypse, in his book "The Long Emergency".  

Having said that, he takes a rare - hard nosed look at what could happen - if we utterly failed to plan, I originally (when this was in draft and published) though it was nearly unforgivably pessimistic, but considering the lack of leadership in the US on this issue. The idea that government and media could fail to inform and help society plan properly for resource limitations, is not exactly a bold idea any more.

Mr. Kunstler also clearly does not feel that the US - or any other country for that matter - could or would choose to address and adapt to the situation through engineering innovations and changes (voluntary or mandated by circumstances) in society.

The contrapositive to Mr. Kunstler would have to be

"The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy", where the realities of oil depletion will never affect anyone and it's all just hype that pessimistic environmentalists and government regulators are dreaming up....I say they need to put the "Kool-aid" down and break out a basic statistics book.

Answer 18

FUEL CELL WILL SAVE THE DAY ITS EVERY WHERES WATER CAN BE CONVERTED IN HYDROGEN ANY OXYGEN BY CHEAPLY USING THE SUNLIGHT AND THE FUEL IS VERY CLEAN THE OUTPUT IS JUST WATER COOL RIGHT, OIL IS HISTORY BYE 2015 AND PLASTICS WILL BE RECYCLED TO THE MAX FOR RE USE AND HELIUM WHO NEEDS IT ANY WAY DA!!

Answer 19

I'm worried about the wars that will happen and are happening  before the oil runs out!

Alternatives need to be found and financed ASAP...

Answer 20

Some plastics can be made out of renewable natural oil. Some can't. It's safe to say that if the oil runs out, the **** will hit the fan in some areas of consumer life.

However... you do know that various so called experts have been telling us that the oil is about to run out in the next few years for several decades now. Don't hold your breath.