What's the risk-reward in drafting Steve Smith, Brandon Marshall and Chad Johnson?

Question

Smith has a 2-game suspension and now there are rumors of the Panthers considering a trade.

Marshall has a 2- or 3-game suspension.

Chad Johnson's ankle aside, how soon before the the “Ocho Cinco” sideshow begins.

Assuming all three of these guys are being drafted much lower due to these problems, what's the risk-reward now? Is there a steal and/or bargain among these three WRs?

Answer 1

I avoided all of them in my 2 teams, yahoo, and espn.  Get something guaranteed instead of drama, thats why its called football.

Answer 2

I took Chad Johnson in one of my leagues (to team up with T.O.) for the main reason that he's now in a contract year so if the ankle is healed up, like they say it is, hopefully he will return to the Chad Johnson of a couple years ago.

I stopped looking to draft Steve Smith 3 years ago. Each year since then he's been somewhat of a disappointment. Besides he's only good if Delhomme is healthy.

I would never draft Marhsall (or any Broncos or Raiders) because they have the most "thugs" on their teams. By thugs, I mean they always have players getting arrested, suspended for substance abuse etc. It's more a personal thing. I just don't want that c**p on my team.

So out of the three, CJ has (IMO) low-risk, high reward.

Answer 3

I would take Johnson the risk an ego problem tht causes problems in the lockerroom the reward one of the best wide-out in NFL history if he keeps these numbers up i think anyone would take tht over and ego and besides in todays game all the wideouts are like that take a look at T.O. and Randy Moss top 5 wideouts with Smith and Johnson

Answer 4

Chad Johnson is easily the safest pick of the bunch.

Sure, he has his off-field problems, and on-field antics, but he's shown consistent (as far as season averages go - he tends to have big and small weeks) numbers throughout more or less all of his career. In the past 5 seasons, his LOWS for the major statistics are as follows:

Receptions: 87 ('06)

Yards: 1274 ('04)

TD's: 7 ('06)

those would still be considered excellent seasonal statistics for most receivers, and they're his lowest stats in the past 5 seasons! Also keep in mind that he technically hasn't missed a game since his rookie year.

His TD's are a concern for leagues that are heavily weighted towards TD's, but even so, he's a very safe pick. I also don't see him acting up and being suspended midseason, especially since he's playing for a new contract.

I'd project 90ish rec, 1300ish yards, and 9ish TDs. I wouldn't let him fall too much.... if he falls at all.

The other guys are tricky picks. Steve Smith has the potential to be the biggest steal, but he also has the potential to be the biggest waste. He's injury prone, and is already missing 2 games, and on top of that, you have to worry about Delhomme staying healthy too - he fails to impress me with anyone else throwing him the ball.

Which brings me, of course, to the trade potential. Trade potential could actually benefit him - if he lands on a team like the Eagles, I'd jump on him in a heartbeat, even with a suspension, he'd probably be worth it down the stretch because he would have too much potential, especially the Eagles success with smallish, quick receivers (most recent - Stallworth, Curtis). Of course if he ended up somewhere else, I'd probably avoid him more.

Marshall seems to have fallen far in Denver. Everyone seems pretty pissed, and thats not a good sign.I'd pick him up with a late pick, and I think he could be a steal down the stretch and as you are in the playoffs. I think he'll be fine once he's back (good, solid numbers), and he wont have as much injury risk as Smith.

Basically, if you're looking for the safest pick among them, its easily Johnson. Smith seems to have the biggest risk/reward, but he would easily justify a late pick. Marshall falls in the same boat as Smith.... if I had to choose a value pick, it'd be Smith. If he comes back with his head on straight, and if he stays healthy, he'll be a top 3 WR once he's back. However, if you draft him, he misses 2 games, comes back, and gets injured for 3 more, chances are you'll have taken him too early. A trade could increase or decrease his value, depending on where he ends up.

Answer 5

I would take a chance on Smith, but stay away from the other two unless they really drop. 5th or 6th rounds.