What are the all the different factors you have to consider when betting on a horse?

Question

and if you can be bothered why there important!! (would be appreciated!)

Answer 1

As obvious as it is you have GOT to look at the horses speed figs. available in the DRF and equibase. Also look to see if horse is on the rail and see if the jockey like to ride on the rail(i.e. Calvin Borel). One more thing is the horses history.Thats what I look at.

Answer 2

I always look at the time between runnings, some trainers wheel their horses back quickly. I like to see 20-30 days in between races. Especially hard run races.

If the horse is coming off of a layoff, how long of a layoff? In the DRF there is a percentage of the trainers win rate coming off a layoff. If the trainers percentage isn't great and it's the horse's 1st start back, I don't look any farther at that horse.

I look at the work outs and times. I have found that horses that have been working on a synthetic surface tends to run faster on dirt OR turf. It's my opinion that the poly track gives the horse a better work out, I'm not sure why.

Then of course there is the "horse for course" angle to consider. Some horses just LOVE one track over another (eg.Silver Wagon performs well in NY, but not in other places).

There is the Trainer/ Jockey angle some play ( Pletcher with Velasquez or Gomez, Dutrow with Prado).

Weather always plays a huge part in my betting strategy! There are some "mudders" that you play when the track is a mud pit. I have a handy dandy Sire Stats book that I carry, I can look up real quick which Sires loved the slop... and I bet accordingly.

I have been a long time pedigree bettor. I always take that into my consideration. Again the Sire Stats book comes in real handy.

If you are at the track, don't feel you HAVE to bet on every race. And I NEVER double up my betting if I am losing. Somedays it's all a matter of luck. If my luck is bad, I quit...LOL! "Live to fight another day".

If you are new at racing, carry what you can AFFORD to lose. Leave all Bank and Credit cards at home, the temptation can just be too great to try and make up your losses.

Answer 3

one factor no one seems to mention is the trainer/owner intentions going into the race...I have seen and heard people tell me not to bet a particular horse in a race (when they know the owner or trainer) , watched the horse get pounded at the window, and finish up the track...now where conventional thinking and handicapping are concerned you should pay attention to the class level of the race and confirmation, me im a breeding and numbers freak (such as first time starter sire stats, or first time turfer, or turfer, off track,  poly,wet track  or night racing stats, jockey/trainer combination numbers for the year, barn percentage of wins off layoffs of different length, the 'whos hot or whos not' jockey or trainer stats...or the old 'horse for course' stat...most of this info is readily available in the DRF, there are also 'hints' in the past performances....such as a horse coming off a layoff but competitve with this same class of horses in the past...runs poorly but 'off' his strongest form (breaks poorly when showed speed in the past, or runs only the first few furlongs and backs up...or is a closer and shows a lot of speed and backs up (after showing a lot of 'stamina' works) these are 'tells' that can get you a price on a horse that looks to be off form when run again with the same horses or in the same class...these horses will often get underbet and provide value, because generally horseplayers or board players are a short memory group who feed on the 'what have you done for me lately' mentality...then there is just plain old luck...a lot of the time you are either lucky or you arent...and no amount of preparation can beat good dumb luck...there have been times when I bet a race, get the numbers wrong (because I punch my own tickets most of the time) punch another ticket of numbers I had intended...and the 'other' ticket hits for a nice trifecta or superfecta...others before me posted to be careful managing money and not to get too caught up in it...it is indeed a good idea not to bring credit cards or bank cards and use them after youve exhausted your available cash...I can remember days when I started off well, maybe a few thousand ahead early in the race cards and staying all night playing off track simulcast races from places like hong kong and australia (I live on the west coast) and losing those thousands, my thousands and money against credit cards... so certainly you have to be able to know when to say when, limit your losses and  often know when youre beat and try again another day...above all , if you are to play ...remember to have fun while you are doing it...and good luck to you...

Answer 4

When gambling on horseracing you need to consider the following -

1) Race trends

This can point you in the right direction i.e.

=In the English Derby the major trend is that the winners have had a maiden race as a 2 year old

2) Draw bias

In some sprint races a Low or High draw can place you at an advantage i.e.

=If the race is a 5 furlong sprint around a tight right hand bend then being placed at the right hand side of the stalls would give you an advantage over horses placed on the left hand side.

3) Whether the horse likes the ground

If your horse needs the ground to be soft then he will not perform as well if it is good ground.

4) Horses current form

This is the biggest indicator, if a horse has been winning/coming placed in 1 mile races and he is in a 1 mile race then you are confident in his current ability.

5)Jockey, Trainer, Horse course and distance form.

Jockeys, trainers and horses sometimes have specific course and distance form.

= This can be because a jockey knows how to ride a specific course better than other courses.

= A trainer may be located near a certain racecourse and he may train on his local course and therefore will know the ins and outs of that specific course better than others.

= Some horses like to race a certain way, i.e. if a horse likes to race right handed then if he is racing on a left handed course it could be worth avooiding that specific horse.

Or the horse may like a flat track so you would avoid tracks that have hills and divits.

6) Jockey's talents in comparrison to how the horse likes to race, i.e.

=If your horse needs to be held up at the rear of the field and pounce late, but your jockey is more comfortable frontrunning or racing with the pace then your horse will not be ridden as well as it could be with a hold up jockey aboard.

7) Trainer's stables form

If the trainer of the horse is not getting many winners lately then the horse would be worth avoiding, trainers tend to have streaks of good and bad form due to conditions at the stable, i.e.

=If a horse is ill then that illness can spread rapidly around the stable and can affect other horses.

8) The standard of race i.e. -

=If it is too high a class,

The race may be too high a class but you should then check the horses rating or handicap mark. ( explained below )

This is a mark that is given to the horse based on it's performances and the better or worse the horse performs the more the mark changes. If a horses mark has been steadily rising then the horse is improving with every race it runs.

9) The horse's ability to get the distance.

You can tell whether a horse can get the distance of a race by three details.

=Previous races, if a horse has raced a mile before and ran well and the current race is over a mile then you know the horse can get the distance.

=Previous races over a different distance, if a horse has raced over 7 furlongs and he was staying on for the last furlong or so then you can estimate that the horse should get a mile.

=Breeding, If a horse is bred from horses that got the distance then this horse should get the distance.

10) Whether the horse has the neccessary attributes to win i.e. -

=If it is a slow run race the horse will need a turn of foot,

=If it is a fast run race the horse will need extra stamina.

11) The most important thing is to understand handicap marks and the extra weight that they are given for rising in the handicap.

All horses start off racing at the same weight, if they win impressively they will be rated higher and the higher their rating, the more weight they will be given to carry to even it out for the other horses.

Flat ratings are simple to follow but jumps ratings are divided between the 2 types of jumps racing.

If you are American then this will not apply but in England, Ireland and France Jumps racing is as popular as flat racing.

Over the National Hunt there are two types of jumps racing, Hurdling and Chasing. Hurdles are smaller and Fences are larger.

A jumps horse may not be able to win races at the fast pace some horses clear the hurdles so he may go chasing. Whilst he is chasing his hurdle handicap mark stays the same as it was before he began chasing regardless of improvement.

So if a horse has a 130 handicap rating over hurdles and then goes chasing for a year and achieves a handicap mark of 155 chasing then he is 25 pounds better over fences.

Some trainers choose to exploit this because they know that the experience over fences will help their hurdling abilities so by entering their horses into a hurdle race the horse will have 25 pounds less weight to carry than he would carrying on chasing. This would give the horse a great chance of winning because they are used to carrying 25 pounds extra weight.

I am an avid horse racing fan especially jumps racing so if you have any other queries, feel free to email me a question.

Answer 5

who will win....

Answer 6

Whether the ground on the day is soft, firm, heavy etc and see what the horses perform best on.

The previous races each horse has done as you dont want one that keeps falling or is pulled up a lot.

Finally the jockey, I have some favourites.

Answer 7

Well, DW, you have to take this free advice for what it's worth.  I don't play the horses much-- I prefer pedigree and conformation study.  But when I do bet, here are the things I look at:

Trainer:  This is one of the first things I look at, because IMO it's a HUGE factor.  What is the trainer's win percentage?  In-the-money percentage?  How does he do with first-time starters?  Horses coming back after a lay-up?  2-year-olds?  Horses making their first start after he's claimed them?  Horses moving up/down the claiming ladder?  Turf horses?  Are most of his winners favorites, or are they at long odds?  Are jockey changes significant for this trainer?

Horse:  On paper, how does the horse look?  Has he been racing recently, or is he coming off a lay-up?  What do his work-outs look like?  Is there any significant change in what he's being asked to do (i.e., going from sprint to distance, dirt to turf, allowance to claiming, moving up or down in claiming price, first start after being claimed)?  Is there a change in equipment or medication (i.e., blinkers on/off, Lasix first time, etc.)?  Is he making his first start since being gelded?  

Physically, how does he look in the saddling paddock, walking ring and warming up on track?  Is he fractious, doing a lot of tail-wringing and bouncing off his front end (these actions indicate resistance and may show a reluctance to run when asked)?  Does he seem to be sweating a lot, especially a lot of foamy "kidney sweat" between the hind legs?  Does he seem to be dull in attitude, not showing much interest in what's going on?  Does his stride seem easy and fluid or short and choppy?  Are there any other physical cues that he may not be 100% or may not have a frame of mind for running?

The race:  Is it playable?  (Not every race is playable-- some are just too hard to figure, some have short-priced favorites and aren't worth the risk, some races there isn't enough information available to make a pick.)  How do you think the race will play out?  Is the track favoring speed/come from behind horses?  Are there any factors to be considered about the state of the track (i.e., fast, sloppy, muddy, hard, soft, etc.)?  

These are all very general factors, and how you weight them in trying to determine the outcome of the race is a very individual thing.  

Good luck to you and have fun!

Answer 8

Lots of things , first horses form , this is deduced by how it has done in its previous races on course , distance ,going of the ground (has it done better on fast ,heavy going) class of horse it has raced against before and is racing now , also check its best time for the distance its running against other horses best times.

Another thing to check is the jockeys and trainers form with course some trainers always have winners at certain courses i.e. Henrietta Knight at her birthday meeting at Exeter or Frost's horses at Newton Abbot .

If its a flat race see if its changed distance it may be dropped or running further distances cos when the trainer runs it at the wrong distance it loses it carries less weight goes back to correct distance and wins.

Check the jockeys record at the course , the best jockeys tend to be on the best horses but if they are contracted to a stable and the course is it local one they may have a lot more losers than winners because they are just giving the horse experience and getting the jockey acquainted with the horse.

Conversley a jockey /trainer partnership of say 40% maybe cos they put the best horses on that particular course.

Look at distance horse has travelled to get to course will a horse not trying travel 500 miles for a race when it could go to a closer course to lose.

Look at the odds some horses are deliberately short priced by bookies just to attract multiple bets , so quite often the second third favs might be the better value.

Also a big factor go with your instinct if you fancy something for whatever reason back it , logic may say one horse , instincts say another back the second as a saver so if you back a horse at say a £5 at 2-1 you get £15 back if it wins but if it gets beaten by your other horse at 10-1 a 1£ saver gets u £11 , funny how many people win "cos i liked the name or the jockeys colours".

Answer 9

whether you can afford to do it

whether you are going to become addicted to gambling

whether you will lose all your possessions just to pay off your gambling debt

Answer 10

the horses form over the terrain its running on. the jockey and the trainer

Answer 11

The only thing that matters is this...How much can you afford to lose?  DON"T BET MORE THAN THAT AMOUNT & You'll stay out of trouble & you can come back tomorrow to place more bets.  You might win & you might not!  It helps if you know how to assess a horse when you see them in the Paddock.  A horse is like any other human athelete.  They have good days & bad days.  If you can spot that they are having a bad day, then you can lessen your losses!

Answer 12

whether the jockey will be trying or not

Answer 13

8 different factors:

Class: check value of race , whether allowance,or graded stakes, and which grade.

Pace: Look at Beyer figure and take an average of the last 3 races.

Jockey: See if jockey the horse is on has won with that horse

Weight: See if horse can withstand the lbs. being ridden that day...and see if there is drasti weight change, and if change has been positive or negative.

Distance: Check points of call to see if the horse is a stalker, has more stamina or more pure speed. See if the track supports such a horse.  Longer tracks like Belmont prefer stalkers and closers. Best to check stretch and finish call to see if horse picked up on leaders or length of victory to determine if the horse can go distance.

Workouts: 12 sec. per furlong is good. Any horse with bullet workouts, or 3 workouts prepping for race, espeically if workout is on track to be raced at, are plus marks.

Track: Check for horses that have won on off-tracks IF the race is scheduled to be run in off-track conditions.  Also see if horse has won on the track before.  Check pace of horse on both these points.

In making your bet selection, look for horses that are getting more value than the morning line.  Daily Racing Form site has a good primer on checking odds for payout. You want to get as much value for a contending horse as possible. I'd play top 2, maybe top 3 horses in across the board bets, and if your bankroll supports it, maybe bet high valued horse for show, and possibly for win or place if gutsy.

Answer 14

I think class is really important.  I look at what kind of races the animals have run in before as much as I do how they did.  If a horse going into a race with a high purse has won or even placed in races of that quality, I may favor him over a horse that may have won more races but for lesser money.  Conversely, if a horse has been racing for big money is placed into a low-level race I will tend to consider him because he's used to facing a better class of animal.  Even if that horse didn't win at the higher level, the lesser competition should be enough to wake him up.  

Along with the class of the animal, you have to look at the raw talent.  The comparitive times are useful to gauge their speed, also you want to look at things like the Beyer/Timeform ratings that use a formula to rate the horses.

Other things to think about are how the horses have done at that duration...6f, 1 1/4 m, whatever...on the racing surface--turf/dirt/synthetic,  wet/fast/etc--the quality of the the jockey and the trainer--some trainers do well with turf horses, some do well with first time starters, others do not.

Answer 15

Most important factor to consider is the perception of the other bettors. In most cases, handicapping is based on the erroneous assumption that today will exactly replicate the past, and that the best choice is a horse that won or finished close up in its last race at an equal or lesser class, at the same distance, on the same surface, with an equivalent or lesser jockey than today.

All of that happens occasionally, but when the entry wins, it generally pays in the $2.40-2.60 range, with exactas less than $4.00. Belmont, Santa Anita, and Hollywood Park are infamous for this type of race.

Anything that anyone could tell you about important factors would tend to be track, distance, and surface specific, and, ultimately, race specific. It is irrelevant what the impact value of turf breeding is on the outcome of a turf route when you are evaluating the contenders in a dirt sprint.

Each race combination has a different set of impact values for the particular factors considered most predictive, or most important, in this particular type of race.

Once you look at races in that light, you will realize that what you need to do is focus on a particular type of race--for example, dirt sprints at major tracks--and arrive at a set of factors that seem important.

You can then fine tune down to impact values for each specific major track, or generalize to other tracks. The entire idea behind race analysis is predicting the future performance, rather than simplistic quantification of the past.

It might seem like a lot of work, but it is WELL rewarded.

You might take a look at the newsletters, tutorials, and general racing information available for free at:

http://www.ddssratings.com

Answer 16

Trainer

Form

Age

Course and distance

Owner

Jockey

Some horses like certain courses

Going