What are the mathematical odds of sinking the eight ball on break?

Question

in a normal game of eight ball with all 15 balls racked tight

Answer 1

For 8-ball, it really depends on the rules you're playing by.  In BCA and WPA 8-ball, making the 8 on the break is not a win so most players will do a standard break where they hit the apex ball as hard as they can.  You're not going to see the 8 go in terribly often this way.

In APA 8-ball where making the 8 on the break IS a win, players typically hit the second ball first (the ball directly behind the apex ball).  This causes the back row of balls to quickly go to the end rail, rebound and kick the 8-ball up table.  A player who is fairly skilled at this style of breaking can get the 8-ball moving almost every time.  With this style, the odds probably jump to about 1 in 7.  Seeing players make the 8 on the break consecutively is not uncommon.

As a frame of reference (though it's pretty much comparing apples to oranges), Accu-Stats reports making the 9 on the break in 9-ball is about 1 in 35.  Once again, this can be easily influenced by equipment.  Old balls or worn cloth can cause the balls to settle in such a way that would influence/deter movement.

Answer 2

I have been playing in the APA pool league for twenty three years now and I cannot give you any statistical information. It's been my experience to make the eight on the break in probably 1 in 30-40 attempts. I suppose that gives me about a 3% chance at winning the game by sinking the eight on the break and not scratching.

Answer 3

1 in 15

Answer 4

Mathematically, it's impossible to calculate. There are infinite possibilities of how the balls will react when hit, and there's no way to predict every possible outcome.

I disagree with the first person that it is a statistical impossibility. He's completely ignoring the fact that the balls bounce off of the rails and each other, and can easily hit the 8 ball.

I did read one professional instructor who suggested you could pocket the 8 on the break as much as 10% of the time with a properly executed second ball break on a bar table. Obviously this is just an educated guess by a very good player, not a mathematical certainty.

Answer 5

Well, given a good break, it should be geometrically impossible. This is because all of the surrounding balls are placed perfectly so any energy given to the 8 ball absorb its energy and dispurse. (unless someone could break hard enough to make all the balls go so fast that they hit a wall, come back, and knock the 8 ball in, which would require a tremendous amount of force) So for all practical purposes, it's impossible.

Answer 6

I do it ever so often. The odds are pretty greatly stacked against everyone though.

Answer 7

You can give yourself a better chance at it depending on where you hit the rack like from the side aiming at the second ball.  However an 8 ball break is just a luck slop shot and for it to count as a win is L.A.M.E... lame.  Play BCA ball in hand rules for a real game of pool.

Answer 8

Out of a 100% chance I would say you would have about 2% chance. Chances are slim

Answer 9

if your referring to a regular break I can recall only doing two times. With the 8 ball break method, I do it about 2 in 10 tries, sometimes 1, so guessing about a 15% chance that way. so the question needs to be more specific.

Answer 10

I have no idea, but ive done it twice before:)

Answer 11

1in 15

Answer 12

Chances are very slim and I believe that it is just pure luck to pocket the 8 ball off the break.  For some reason it is easier when playing 9 ball to get the 9 off the break but in 8 ball it is not very common.