What can global climate models tell us about life on eath for future generations?

Question

please be specific:]

Answer 1

Climate models can not be trusted.  The following comment is from a computer programmer:

FACT: Only Computer Illiterates believe in "Man-Made" Global Warming.

What people do not understand is that there is no proof of "Man-Made" Global Warming without using irrelevant computer models. Yes computer models have a place in engineering but are utterly useless at fortune telling, I mean "climate prediction". With engineering you can build and test in the real world to confirm the computer model's accuracy. You can do not such thing with the planet Earth and it's climate. You cannot build a planet and it's atmosphere to "test" your computer climate model.

I am a computer analyst and can make a computer model do whatever I want by "tuning it" (adjusting variables by guessing until I get the answer I want or think is right).

GIGO: Garbage in = Garbage out

Computers need exact information and the exact procedures to process that information to get accurate answers, without that you get useless results, period. There is no way around this. Everything must be 100% understood and 100% accurate.

Computing incomplete, biased or flat out wrong data (guesses and assumptions) based on poorly understood climate physics into a "model" will give you junk results. Testing a model against past climate is an advanced exercise in curve fitting, nothing more and proves absolutely nothing. What this means is you are attempting to have your model's output match the existing historical output that has been recorded. For example matching the global mean temperature curve over 100 years. Even if you match this temperature curve with your model it is meaningless. Your model could be using some irrelevant calculation that simply matches the curve but does not relate to the real world. With a computer model there are an infinite number of ways to match the temperature curve but only one way that represents the real world. It is impossible for computer models to prove which combination of climate physics correctly matches the real world. Do not be fooled this logic is irrefutable by anyone who understands computer science and computer modeling.

To make matters worse it is not computer scientists creating these models but natural scientists coding them using Fortran. These natural scientists do not even begin to have the basic understanding of computer science or proper coding practices. Sloppy and buggy code is littered inside these climate model programs yet there is next to no accountability for any of this. How do you separate a programming error from a temperature anomaly? How can you replace observational data with a complex mathematical equation? You can't.

Processing more complex data in more complex ways via guessing gives you more complex junk results. But since the models have been "tuned" (guesstimated or deliberately altered to get the results they want) they get results that "seem" likely or even convincing to the average computer illiterate, except it is all based on a complex serious of guesses and assumptions and absolutely meaningless for prediction.

Nothing is emotional about computers they are pure logical machines, 1 + 1 must = 2. Imagine trying to use random numbers to get a right answer on a calculator but you do not know if you are to add or multiply those numbers and you have no way to confirm that "right answer" except to wait 50-100 years. Sound crazy? Welcome to Global Climate Modeling.

All the computer illiterates are convinced that because something is done on a "super computer" that costs "millions of dollars" it is infallible. The more complex the model, the more "mysterious" it seems to the average person. The public gives computer climate models this mystical aura because they are largely computer illiterate about how they actually work and when they hear the term "computer" they do not want to sound or feel stupid, so they nod their heads and go along with it.

What the modelers do is they keep playing with the numbers in a much more complex way until they think they guess right. A useless exercise. These same climate model computers are used to predict your weather and you know how accurate they are. But d**n! Al Gore and Gavin Schmidt can certainly tell your what the climate will be 50-100 years from now! Give me a break. Don't be fooled that modeling climate is different than the weather or one is more accurate than the other long term. The difference is simply a matter of resolution and scale.

Why are we not turning to models to predict the future for everything? Because they can't, not even remotely. Some of them work "sort of" for the weather in very, very short term results (1-3 days) until all the data they are processing that is wrong combined with all the data they are missing and the millions of variables they are not accounting for start to kick in and grow exponentially the farther out the model runs and wham - the model is wrong. No kidding, there are simply way too many variables that they cannot account for and the computer power necessary to even start to take these variables into account does not exist.

You are expected to believe that they can "model" the climate 50-100 years in the future when they cannot even give you accurate weather 3 days out? Don't be fools, I do this for a living, Computer Models cannot predict the future with anything as complex as the Earth's climate.

Answer 2

Global warming models estimate that the process of mass extinction of species, which has started with the dawn of civilization and picked up pace in the last few centuries, is going to increase dramatically, as almost every species will suffer from significant climate change, and most species will die out.

Answer 3

That we should expect change, global warming, global cooling, climate shift and even polar shifts all can and do occur.

Answer 4

yes if the global warming will be increase the temperature of earth will also increase. if the temperature will increase more the earth may be destroyed. it is not late you can decrease the temperature by not using plastic and not using computer  for long hours. all the electric things causes global warming.