What did you think of yesterdays races?

Question

I am talking about the Wood Memorial,Santa Anita Derby and the Illinois Derby. I was impressed with War Pass,Tale of Ekati,Col.John,Bob Black Jack and Recapturetheglory.

Answer 1

What we know now is that the field of competitors has been sharply cut down. Bob Black Jack was certainly impressive, but the obvious contender from the SA Derby was Colonel John (the time was also fairly fast, though it was ran on a synthetic surface in a typical synthetic surface fashion). War Pass is almost certainly out, I think, and Tale of Ekati hasn't had a shot since the Juvenile (he's lost against lesser competition). There's nothing coming from the Illinois Derby either; it was DoC's big chance but he kind of blew it (if you watch you'll see the lack of closing kick). I'd say this narrows it down to a three horse race: Pyro, Big Brown, and Court Vision, although I anticipate that War Pass, being the blazing speed he is, will still be a factor in the early pace. To sum it up, betting in the Derby just got a whole lot easier.

Answer 2

All I can say is that I was screaming at the TV!

But one thing I'm really going to miss is War Pass. =( Because he was a really good 2yo last year, and now he's barley making the top 10 list for the Derby. It just bums me out. I'm not saying he's a bad horse now, not at all, I just think that horse has changed since he lost his last race, and I miss him being the War Pass he once was...

=( He's even moved down on MY top 5 list...

But for the Santa Anita Derby, all I can say is that again, I was screaming at my TV!!!

Colonel John has now mad it on my top 5 list! I really like him too now. He kinda put my War Pass issues to the side for awhile.

Denis of Cork could have put in more effort for the Illinois Derby too, but hey, not every racehorse is perfect. =)

But as of now, I'm starting to get Derby FeVeR!! =D

Here is my top 5 list btw...

- Big Brown

- Colonel John

- Pyro

- War Pass

- Visionaire

Answer 3

The Illinois Derby was certainly surprising wasn't it?  The winner wasn't even nominated to the Derby.  The two horses that were supposed to be the major contenders failed to fire at all.

Denis of Cork - I disagreed with giving this horse the layoff before this race.  He was undefeated and I definately think he's a decent horse.  He won the Southwest over Sierra Sunset who came back to win the Rebel and earn one of the highest Beyer figures of any of the Derby contenders.  The problem is that he doesn't have enough experience.  I'm not concerned that he threw in a clunker in this race (War Pass had a clunker last time out but came back to make a good run to be second)... I'm concerned that he's not physically and mentally ready to face 20 horses in the Kentucky Derby.  It's great to be a fresh horse, but not at the expense of being unprepared.  Denis of Cork will make a pretty decent summer horse, but he won't win the Kentucky Derby.

Atoned - he has more experience and finishing 4th really isn't all that bad.  I liked his run in the Remsen where he almost fell down but closed nicely to get second... then he was involved in that stretch duel with Big Truck last time out.  I think that might have messed with him mentally... There was a lot of talk last year (after Street Sense and Any Given Saturday had their Tampa Bay Derby stretch duel) about the effect that that kind of racing has on the horses... I saw TVG list the horses who had that type of race and how they did in the future and a lot of them really declined after that race... it's just something mental about having a horse look you in the eye and run down the stretch next to you... and there's the physical issue of how a match race type run takes an awful lot of energy out of a horse.  I really do like Atoned, but I think he now needs a break.  I highly doubt that he could win the Derby.

Z Humor - I see this horse in the same way that I saw Imawildandcrazyguy last year.  He's that horse that's always entered in these graded stakes races but he's really not up for the competition.  He always manages to get toward the front of the field, but never first... he's kinda mediocre... he ends up 3rd-6th.  He could get up for 3rd or 4th in the Derby like Imawildandcrazyguy did last year, but he certainly won't win.

Recapturetheglory - he looked pretty good and he'll probably be a pretty good stakes horse in the future.  He won't win the Derby because (1) he doesn't have the experience, (2) he's a speed horse running against War Pass and the speed duel will eliminate both of them from the Derby, and most importantly: (3) he's not nominated and won't even run!

Santa Anita Derby - that was a really good, really fun race to watch.  And the top 5 horses were the ones who were supposed to be the top 5 horses.

Colonel John - He's got a great shot at winning the Derby.  The only question is how he'll handle the dirt but I think his running style will transfer fine to the Churchill Downs surface which is a pretty hard surface that really favors the closers.  He has a big stride and he'll be picking off horses in the turn and through the stretch.  He overcame some trouble in his trip... he had to find running room in the stretch, but as soon as he did, he kicked into gear and flew to the finish.  I also really like that he's faced some good competition.  He has the ability to look a horse in the eye and battle to the finish... and El Gato Malo isn't an easy horse to beat.  Then he beat a world record holder by passing Bob Black Jack.

Bob Black Jack - he's got great speed... but so does War Pass.  I had questions about whether Bob Black Jack could go the distance, but he was only a narrowly beaten second in a G1 9 furlong race.  The problem: if he handles the dirt at Churchill, he has to deal with a pace race with War Pass.  We know he has the speed to keep the lead (he holds a world record because of his speed) but can he have that kind of pace and go the distance??  The fractions in the SA Derby were quite a bit slower than the fractions in the Wood...  Bob Black Jack ran fractions in 23 and 47 while War Pass ran in 22 and 46.  And Churchill is a much harder surface than the Santa Anita surface and as such favors closers more than speed.  He could run a good race in the Derby, but I wouldn't bet on him to win.

Coast Guard - he's a synthetic surface horse.  He went to Bay Meadows (only dirt surface in California) and ran dismally.  I don't see him doing much outside of California.

Yankee Bravo - he's a fine horse, but not quite the caliber of Colonel John and the other GI horses.

El Gato Malo - I'm a little disappointed with his run, but he didn't lose by much even though he was 5th.  He's a closer so Churchill should be an ok surface for him if he handles the dirt.  I see serious distance issues for this horse though.  He was closing really well around the turn and he didn't really flatten out in the stretch, but he didn't have a lot more either.  His pedigree suggests he ought to stick to the shorter distances.  David Flores was really pushing him around the turn as they entered the stretch.  He's probably not a Kentucky Derby winner and I'm guessing we see him in the Breeders Cup Sprint rather than the Classic.

Wood Memorial - another excellent race

War Pass - he rebounded nicely from his dismal last race.  He got his easy trip and went to the lead and was strong until the last furlong.  I think he'll be the Hard Spun of this year... the horse than goes and sets the quick pace and manages to hang on to be in the money, but rarely ever wins.  His pedigree is a little better at the short distances, but he's fit enough to hang on a little longer.  I really don't think he has the 10 furlongs and you can really see that he's struggling in the final furlong of the Wood.  The other problem: if he doesn't break well in the Derby and he's stuck behind horses in a stalking trip, I guarantee that he doesn't even hit the board.

Tale of Ekati - I really liked this horse last year.  He ruined his chances at the BC Juvie when he worked out the week before and ran 4 furlongs in 45!  He didn't do so hot in the Louisiana Derby but he did close ok and it was only his first race of the year... and he had a really bad break and was stuck at the very back of the pack for the whole race and didn't really have running room until the stretch.  I think he's returned to form and he'll be better prepared for the Kentucky Derby because of his rough Louisiana Derby trip.  And he has a great pedigree and should easily handle all of the Triple Crown distances.  And he should be a decent price on Derby day since so many people are fixated on Pyro and Big Brown.

Court Vision - He's always good enough to get up to be in the money, but he doesn't have the sort of flashy closing kick that other Derby contenders have.  I know he won the Remsen but since then he's had a hard time getting up for the show.  I don't think he has the power and speed necessary to win the Kentucky Derby.

Anak Nakal - he simply hasn't turned out to be as talented as people initially expected.  He'll be a big long shot and probably will finish 10th or below in the Kentucky Derby.

Texas Wildcatter - too much speed to compete against War Pass in the Derby.

I really like Tale of Ekati and I liked him last year.  I would have liked for him to have another start this year... he should have prepped for the Louisiana Derby even if it was in an easy allowance race.  But I like his style and pedigree... he's very talented and he'll be a good price on Derby day.  He might not win the Derby, but there's a good chance that he'll be in the money.  I still like Pyro the best of all Derby contenders but if anyone can beat him, it's Tale of Ekati.

Answer 4

I enjoyed all of the races yesterday. They were all filled with exitement. The Wood Memorial was great! I missed the old War Pass but he did set torrid fractions for the 1 1/8 race, so that could get the best of him. If he likes to set the pace in the Derby, it might not be the best for him. Tale of Ekati got the best of him.

   The Santa Anita Derby was awesome! Colonel John just got up in the nick of time to beat Bob Black Jack. Bob Black Jack was pretty good yesterday. Coast Guard was good too after a dissapointing performance in the El Camino Real Derby.

   The Illinois Derby was a shocker! Recapturetheglory paid $33.80 to win! I was surely thinking Denis of Cork would win. Oh well take nothing away from the winner. Recapturetheglory by four lengths! Here are my Derby picks:

  1. Big Brown or Pyro

  2. Colonel John

  3. War Pass