What do I do with the second nut flush?

Question

I know you guys missed my questions :). Anyways, you have Q9hh on the button. Its folded to you in a .5/1 online game. Effective stacks are 90. You raise to 3. A loose, somewhat aggressive player calls. He likes to bet if you dont, but his bet sizing is kinda small in relation to the pot when he does this. The one time he bet close to the pot that went to showdown, he had tptk. Anyways, villian calls on the bb.

Flop is ATT two hearts. He checks, I c-bet 5 into 6.50 he calls.

Turn is is a Kc. He checks, I check.

River is a 5h. Pot is 16.5. He bets 8. I decide to raise it out because when he bets 1/2 pot he is usually weak. Plus, I assume there is value from worse flushes and straights. I raise to 29. He goes allin. Never seen him 3-bet preflop or postflop. However, Im not sure whether he is capable of 3-betting worse. What do I do?

Answer 1

I would call.  He called before the flop instead of re-raising.  Okay, he has something worth seeing a flop with.  He then checked and called on the flop, indicating that he hit something but not huge.  If he's aggressive like you said you'd expect him to bet the turn unless he's hoping to take a card off.  And in that case he doesn't have a made hand like a full house.  When he bets on the river he's probably made something with that five, but would he really call a pre-flop raise with T5?  I've seen it done, but it's rare enough not to let it interfere with the most probable story.  The other option, of course, is that he's holding pocket fives.  But even a loose player should know to get out with a small PP when something like ATT hits and your opponent bets.  I would put this guy on suited connectors, maybe 89h.  I think he has a flush, but if he had the king he would have made two pair on the turn and bet it.  This story screams suited connectors.  Call.

There are hands out there that beat you, but this guy could just as easily be playing ace rag.  You're getting 2.4 to 1 on your money to call, and you'll win with the 2nd nut flush to this board more often than you lose.  Call.

Answer 2

If you are playing a cash game, you call the bet and take your chances.  If he has a full house then you got caught with your pants down and you can buy back into the game.

However if this is tournament you fold.  Why?  Because poker is playing the man not the cards or the pot odds.  Villain has done something to you you have never seen before. When he has made big bets, he had the goods.  Now he comes over the top all-in!?!?!?!  You take your lumps and fold.  Hopefully if he did bluff he will be so proud he will show his hand.  If so you have more info the next time you two go heads up.  

The fallacy of a lot of poker players is that they get sucked into pot odds.  What good are pot odds if your beat?   Tourney play is about survival and controlled aggression.  Fold and live to fight another day.

Answer 3

To me the over bet is screaming please dont call. It would be a tough call but if you get involved with Q9h and make the flush...what did you call for? To me its an instacall.

Answer 4

Tough one. You overplayed the flush draw with a pair on the board, but now you're pretty much pot committed. Since you didn't bet half your stack on the river, he might be on the pure bluff since he sees you left yourself an out.

But, from his betting pattern, I think he's got the nuts. When an aggressive player checks, they got it. When they bet, they don't. Also, if you see this pattern from an aggressive player:

check-check-small bet

or

call-call-small bet

that usually means they have it. Also, in this case, I think he was waiting for you to hit the flush, and your bet told him he was right.

Couple things you can do in the future:

1. bet on the turn: You need to find out how much trouble you are in. If you had bet 8 on the turn, and he called, you would have known you were in deep trouble. Since you bet, he might think of check raising on the river, but then you can just check-check.

2. Call the last bet: check-check-small bet from an aggressive player should sound bells. One time, I folded on the flop after an aggressive player checked (no bets) and he flipped over top trips.

3. Be more careful on the flush draw: while you are rightly concerned with the K-high flush, there are a ton of hands that can beat you at this point.

4. Be more selective with hands: Q9s is a good stealing hand, but you're basically only playing for a straight, flush or FH, and even if you hit one of them, you might still lose. Top pair, the flush or even the Q high straight can be beat.

5. pay attention to your own betting patterns. While you were watching him, he is also watching you. When I have the flush draw, I sometimes play it like top pair, and vice versa. Continuation bet + check screams draw.

Answer 5

wow, this one is actually a very complicated hand

there are two main questions here imo...the first is, have you ever seen this guy slowplay a monster hand on the flop? if so, then there is an extra case for folding as A-10 and K-10 could be in his range...the other question is, is this guy good enough to recognize that when you raise him on the river, a small flush is the best hand 0% of the time? if so, then he's definitely got you beat, and you should fold...and it's the second question that makes this hand so hard, because judging from your vague descriptions of this player you don't have enough info to know whether or not he's that sophisticated a player...if you don't have any of this info to lead you in any direction, i'm not sure i could fold the second nut flush getting 2.5-1 on the call

personally, i think your mistake in this hand was made by giving out a free card on the turn...when he calls the flop, he most likely has either a 10 or a flush draw, with a chance of K-Q or K-J, and when the straight card hits and he checks, he probably doesn't have a 10 either...you should be led to believe that he has a smaller flush draw most of the time, and should take a stab at the pot right there...now, based on the way the hand was played, it's obvious that a full house was part of his possible range, but i doubt that you were thinking that on the turn, so i think the best play would be to throw in around a half pot bet...a lot of times, either he'll fold and you'll win the pot, or he'll call with the worst hand and the worst draw