What do you think of the hold'em system? Do you know a better one?

Question

A friend of mine worked this out for me and I want to know if other card players are using this system.

Have you seen how on TV poker they have the percentage of a hand hitting underneath the cards? A friend of mine helped me work out a system that allows you to get within a couple of percentage points quickly in your head. It only works after the flop, but check this out.

You count up the number of cards left in the deck that would make your hand, and before the turn you multiply that number by 4. That's it! After the turn that number is cut in half.

For instance...if you are open ended to the straight that means there are 8 cards that can help you. You have a roughly 32% chance of hitting it on the turn....if it doesn't hit on the turn it drops to roughly 16%.

So if you have 4 to the flush....9 suited cards will help you. So you have a +-36% chance of hitting the flush after the flop and +-%18 of hitting on the river.

I'm watching WTP and comparing my numbers...it's close!

Answer 1

Congratulations, you re-invented the wheel.

Answer 2

You're just regurgitating fundamental poker skills.

Answer 3

not knowing that until just now tells me you are telling your opponents your hole cards.

Answer 4

yeah its poker math.....

Answer 5

It's called the rule of 2 and rule of 4.  It's been around for years, long before poker was on TV.

The reason your numbers don't always match up with the WPT is because they are taking into account the cards that have been folded.  When you calculate this in your head, unless a card has been exposed, you cannot know what has been folded.  So you may think you have 9 outs to make a nut flush, but three players may have folded six of your outs before the flop.  Since the WPT see all the folded cards, and cards in play, they are far more accurate than the rule of 2 and 4.

The next trick is to learn to calculate your BEP, pot odds, and implied odds.  All this math will help your game.

Answer 6

this seems viable