What do you think of the new study concluding that global warming is causing stronger hurricanes?

Question

*NOTE* - the effect of global warming on the *frequency* of hurricanes is still uncertain. This study is on the *intensity* of hurricanes.

"James Elsner, a climatologist at Florida State University in Tallahassee, and his colleagues have now found that the strongest tropical storms are getting stronger, with the most notable increases in the North Atlantic and northern Indian oceans. Very strong storms, Elsner says, can more easily overcome any inhibiting effects of shearing winds than weaker storms, and go on to reach their maximum possible strength."

"Rising ocean temperatures are thought to be the main cause of the observed shift. The team calculates that a 1 ºC increase in sea-surface temperatures would result in a 31% increase in the global frequency of category 4 and 5 storms per year: from 13 of those storms to 17. Since 1970, the tropical oceans have warmed on average by around 0.5 ºC. Computer models suggest they may warm by a further 2 ºC by 2100.

"It'll be pretty hard now for anyone to claim that cyclone activity has not increased," says Judith Curry, an atmospheric researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, who was not involved in the study."

full article here: http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080903/full/news.2008.1079.html

further analysis: http://climateprogress.org/2008/09/03/nature-hurricanes-are-getting-fiercer-and-its-going-to-get-much-worse/

What do you make of this study?

Answer 1

Everything there has been basic common knowledge since before WWII. I got most of this that I had not received in high school during Navy boot camp in 1958!

Added is a quote from Ben Bova, scientist and author:

A few weeks ago, I wrote about schemes to weaken hurricanes or steer them away from land. Back in 1967 I wrote a novel titled "The Weathermakers," which dealt with exactly that problem.

How do you prevent hurricanes from striking populated areas, killing hundreds of people and causing billions of dollars worth of damage?

In "The Weathermakers," I proposed a scheme that uses brute force and clever timing.

Hurricanes begin as tropical disturbances out over warm ocean waters. The center of such disturbances is a rising column of warm air, which eventually becomes the eye of a full-grown hurricane.

In my fiction, I had squadrons of B-52 bombers drop tons of liquid nitrogen into those rising columns of warm air. The liquid nitrogen, at close to 300 degrees below zero, cools the disturbance's central core. The disturbance dissipates. No hurricane forms.

That was fiction. Would it work in the real world? I don't know.

How much heat has to be dissipated in order to break up a tropical disturbance? Would a squadron-load of liquid nitrogen be enough to do the trick? Maybe several missions would be necessary.

The cost would be trivial compared to the damage that a Katrina or a Wilma can do. But what would the long-term effects of stifling hurricanes be? As the old television ad used to say, "It's not nice to fool Mother Nature."

Would our weather system hurt us in other ways if we prevent hurricanes from forming?

Hmm. That might be a good idea for a new novel!

Everything there has been basic common knowledge since before WWII. I got most of this that I had not received in high school during Navy boot camp in 1958!

Added is a quote from Ben Bova, scientist and author:

Answer 2

I'm going to reserve judgment on this one. Climatologists have been blowing hot and cold (excuse the pun) on global warming and tropical cyclones for a while now.

Answer 3

It's interesting that they tossed out the (THC), one of the most volatile oceanic systems in the world. But what the hey!... I'm condition to this stuff.

Answer 4

Since there is an apparent multi-decadal oscillation in the frequency of hurricanes and because most of the largest hurricane happened in periods of relative cold, it is difficult to take their conclusions too seriously.  Again it seems like searching for evidence to prove your conclusion.  Science should not work that way.  You end up providing evidence for something you want to prove regardless of the actual truth.

Answer 5

It is not worth the paper it's written on---

http://www.1900storm.com/

http://www.hurricaneglassshield.com/stor...

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hur...

Answer 6

I think we all know warmer water causes hurricanes to be stronger.

But it isn't caused by us humans.

Answer 7

I certainly wish that they would make up their minds.

It simply goes to show just how undeveloped ..... climate science is.

Answer 8

Jim Z . is right on and you  need to stop idolizing science obsession is not good for anyone.

Answer 9

They've predicted stonger and more numerous hurricanes each year for the past five years or so because of global warming.  Each year prior to this they've been way off.  Sooner or later they were bound to get a few in a row, but where they see it as 'proven' I see it as 'coincidence'.

The year after Katrina, the hurricane center in Denver predicted a very heavy hurricane season, and some outfit in the UK (I can' t remember the name off the top of my head) said the same.  The oil speculators and investors got all jumpy about it and the price of oil skyrocketed.  But that year was the lightese hurricane season in history it turned out.  

So it's all guesswork, and nothing more.  They can't predict hurricane activity beforehand any more than they can predict lottery numbers.  

Answer 10

sounds feasible - the water is warmer, more energy thus more movement of the air

Answer 11

Vast majority of the hurricanes have been pretty lame this year, so much for the global warm conspiracy

Answer 12

It seems like the "study" is just restating the fact that we've known for a while, warmer water creates stronger hurricanes. That's why meteorologist thought Gustav was going to strengthen over the Gulf (because of its shallow, warmer waters).

Answer 13

If global warming is a natural cycle, there is no reason that huricanes should not have increased in intensity over the last 30 years. The only reason that we know about hurricane Ike and it's current intensity, which will not last long, is because of modern technology (satellites). Such monitoring was not available during the last 30 year global warming cycle, that peaked in the 1930's.