What effect is the current solar minimum having on global warming?

Question

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/080711-solar-minimum.html

What should we expect with the next maximum?

What is the relevance of solar activity on our current situation?

Answer 1

This does have an effect, but right now it's pretty small. Cycle 24 is "late" starting, and the later it goes the deeper the inter-cycle trough.

Right now TSI (total solar irradiance) is about 0.4 Watts per square meter below the minima seen in the previous two solar cycles. To convert this to an expected temperature difference requires a couple of steps. First, that "flat plate" square meter must be spread across the earth's entire surface, including the nightside, so we divide that by 4. That means the climatologically significant TSI is 0.1 Watts per square meter below previous minima.

Then you apply the sensitivity of the climate to solar forcing, which is (roughly) .5, so the expected change in global temperature is .about .05° C below previous minima.

Solar maxima are roughly 1 to 1.5 Watts per square meter above minimums, which gives you a (ballpark) warming of maybe .15° C at those times.

These effects are so subtle that you usually wouldn't notice them in a time series plot of global temperature.

ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradiance...

Answer 2

I am really glad that we have so many solar scientists on the GW forum--

http://www.universetoday.com/2008/04/02/...

http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/...

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1991/90...

and I quote "While many aspects of the study are unavoidably simplistic, the results can be taken as indicating that solar variability has been an important contributor to global climate variations in recent decades." Solar wind variations are not taken into account in this report-- we only have this data for a short period of time.

http://spacephysics.ucr.edu/index.php?co...

Answer 3

Basically none.  The 11-year solar cycle is such a small variation in solar irradiance that it's almost imperceptible in the temperature record.

Answer 4

http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/note...

    here's a  link, regarding the relationship between sunspot activity and climate. There is clearly a link, the sun's the main factor controlling climate. Duh. It's long been known that years with high sunspot activity tend to have better crop yeilds.

       no telling what the next maximum will bring, for sure - but there are several known cycles, of different periods . Some are concerned it may be as bad as the little ice age, for a few decades.

    I hope we are in for a cool decade, otherwise AGW proponents may well succeed in making energy too expensive for anyone but the very wealthy to live comfortably

     I am glad your'e interested in learning about global warming  - I think most will recognise it as very expensive baloney, with a bit of reading.  AGW proponents main argument seems to be " just believe what we say the experts say". And educated sounding obfuscation.

      Here's a link to a good explanation, in laymans language, very readable, of the skeptics veiw

http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2007/09/t...

   This one describes how Manns "hockey stick" chart was discredited, and the objectivity of the U.N.s IPCC report, along with it

      http://www.climatechangeissues.com/files...

Answer 5

None.

There is a strong correlation between solar activity and weather patterns / short-term climate variations but no link at all to rapid warming of the planet over periods of 30-100 years (which is what is meant by "gloal warming").

The IPCC found that "the maximum likely influence of solar" fluctuations on climate change is just 20% (http://www.ipcc.ch/)

Recent analysis has shown that "the sun's activity has been decreasing since 1985, [yet] global temperatures have continued to rise... The issue of whether the sun's activity is causing global warming had been dispensed with by most scientists long ago."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/20...

Answer 6

climate change is real, it is a multi-factorial determined cycle.  AGW is an invention of the liberal/leftist/g*y/obama/greenies who wish to use this as a means to change the social structure of the industrial world-do not be fooled...

Answer 7

Minimal.  The "solar minimum" refers to sunspot activity, which has very little effect on the amount of solar radiation received on Earth.  See, for example,:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/arc...

http://environment.newscientist.com/chan...

BOATMAN - A 17 YEAR OLD STUDY, with much equivocation??  Three others that don't refer to solar irradiance or climate AT ALL, but simply to the "solar wind" which is important for astronauts and radio communications, and NOT climate.  Give me a break.  Scientists KNOW global warming is not caused by the Sun, because we measure SOLAR IRRADIANCE, which is what matters.  

"Recent oppositely directed trends in solar

climate forcings and the global mean surface

air temperature", Lockwood and Frolich (2007), Proc. R. Soc. A

doi:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880

http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/pro...

News article at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6290228.st...

As one scientist has said "The only problem with putting a nail in the coffin of the "It's the Sun" theory is finding a place to put it.

This stuff is simply not credible, or relevant.