What effects will be the result of our losing 1/3 of our crops in 2007?

Question

1. for reasons i don't wish to talk about, it is predicted now that we will probably lose one third of our annual crop yield. if we do lose 1/3 of our crops, what, other than even higher food prices (they already zoomed up because of the cost to transport food!) might we experience here in the united states?

2. the department of agriculture sees to it that farmers are paid for letting their fields go sallow. do you think the government is going to ask such farmers, now, to plant crops? which crops would the government pay for them to plant?

3. why does the government pay farmers not to plant crops?

4. given that the usa is the 'breadbasket of the world,' are we going to be able to help poverty-ridden nations eat in 2007 and 2008 if we lose a third of our annual crop production?

5. what crops, what fruits and vegetables, will suffer most from crop failure?

6. does the crop failure predicted then reduce our available livestock, that which we eat, i.e., meats?

famine?

Answer 1

Dear Louiegirl....If all available tillable acres were planted,there would be so much corn that it would be practically worthless,so the gov't has programs to pay farmers not to plant certain parcels,thus insuring a per-bushel price that will allow the farmers to stay in business.

My family has farmed for 6 generations,and both the oldsters and the almanac agree,and there isn't going to be any large scale crop failure.Some areas will get too much rain,some not enough,that is as it always was...normal.

The only problem I can see with the crops is the HUGE demand ethanol will put on our corn,the SAME corn we use to feed the world and our hogs and chickens.(most cattle are on pasture and hay,and don't require much corn) This will obviously cause a price increase here in USA....The foreign countries we ship the corn to usually don't end up paying for our corn anyhow,so the price doesn't matter much to them either way.

The only crop "failures" could be in cherries and citrus due to the bee shortage....but its just going to be annoying,not tragic.

Answer 2

1. The US is a food net food exporter so we probably produce more than we consume, however we also import a lot of food as well so our production vs consumption is not clear. That said even if the US could not produce enough food it could export enough food to feed everyone. The cost of food would undoubtedly rise considerably with that large a shortage. Your later questions hint that we might bring more land under cultivation and I think that is true. Also if we become a net food exporter we will drive up world food prices causing more cultivation world wide and also probably food shortages in very poor parts of the world that could no longer afford to buy food. Parts of the US that depend upon farm income would be either hurt badly because of a sudden decline in income or would be helped a lot by higher prices in those areas that do not suffer the full 1/3 decline you speculate is coming. I would suggest you by futures in those food commodities you anticipate will be in short supply because if you are right you will make a ton of money.

2. With that drastic a reduction in food production you can be certain that the government will feel compelled to increase farm production by whatever means they can think of. Subsidizing the planting of crops seems unlikely to me but you might see things like emergency loans for efforts to increase production.

3. The US farm sector has the capacity to grow quite a bit more food than we can consume. The excess food production causes food prices to fall so low that farmers cannot make money. This happened repeatedly in the past before farming subsidies of the type you describe were enacted. The reason that happens is because each individual farmer tries to grow as much as possible to maximize his income. He has know way of knowing that he and all the other farmers are actually growing way too much. The result is extremely low prices. The following year much fewer farmers plant resulting in shortages and very high prices. The next year after that many more farmers plant anticipating more high prices but then there is another over production year. Payments not to plant are a very successful way that the government devised to put a stop to these boom-bust cycles.

4. As I noted above we would probably have to import food and this would definitely cause great hardship for poor countries.

5. I have not heard such predictions of crop failure so I cannot say which will be most effected. I did a Google search for crop yield predictions and I didn't see any news reports of a large anticipate crop failure.

6. Crop failures would likely reduce the availability of livestock feed and thus livestock production. This is actually a good thing if we are facing a food shortage because livestock is a very inefficient way to produce food. You get a lot more useful calories from eating the plants directly than you would get by using the plants to raise animals that you then eat.

Famine? Not in the United States, except possibly amongst our own poor and homeless, who vary well may get less to eat. Famine amongst poor countries I think would be likely.