What happens to the International Space Station in 2020?

Question

The projectted lifespan of the multi-billion ISS is about

15 years, or until about the year 2020. So, I want to know.

What happens then? Will NASA alllow the station to

burn up in reentry as is usually the case when satellites

outlive their use? If so, won't that cause a danger to

the citizens of Earth? I mean, this is the largest satellite

ever put up in space, and there will surely be large chucks

of it that will survive the heat from reentry. And even NASA

can't predict with pinpoint accuracy where it will come down.

Or will NASA opt to attach rockets to it and steer it into

a course set for the Sun?

Inquiring minds wannna know!

Answer 1

Some people have been giving thumbs-down to the answers talking about how difficult it is to get something into the Sun. If you don't believe this, then don't mark it bad - it's actually true.

For instance - it takes probes about 9 months to a year to fly as far as Jupiter, or even 4 years on the economy trip. This is about 4 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun.

We have a probe on its way to Mercury right now (Messenger). Messenger was launched in August, 2004. When did it get to Mercury? It's not there yet, and won't get there until March of 2011. Seven years in transit. New Horizons will make it all the way out to Pluto in about 10 years of travel.

Why is it so hard to just "fall" into the Sun? Because the Earth is going very fast along its path, orbiting the Sun. You have to reverse almost all of that speed in order to go to the Sun. To be fair, Messenger has already flown past Mercury once, and will fly by it again once more before it arrives slowly enough to be captured into orbit.

Ok - the other part of the question is fair, but remember that Skylab was NOT a controlled re-entry. It had no boosters on board to steer it into the atmosphere. The ISS will be steered in deliberately, and they will know precisely where it is going to hit the ocean when they have the ability to bring it in on purpose. They can land in an ellipse 100km by 20km on Mars, they can certainly hit a certain patch of ocean right here at home.

You can be sure that they'll even make sure that all the world's shipping companies are made aware of the crash zone, and to steer clear of it at the right time.

Answer 2

Nothing.

Remember, the projected life of the Russian Mir space station was 5 years... but they kept it going for 15.  Expect the ISS to outlast its "warranty" by a couple decades.

(With luck, it mught outlive its design by as great a proportion as the Mars Rovers have outlived theirs.  But probably not.)

Before then, the ISS will simply be upgraded and parts replaced as necessary.  Probably no major parts like modules, but internal components, maybe even the solar arrays.

Eventually, yes, it will have to be brroken up and de-orbited (not necessarily in that order).  Trying to set it to fly into the Sun would cost a ridiculous amount of fuel, so that will never happen. (The sun is really far away, not a short jaunt to the corner store.)

Answer 3

To get something that size on a course to the sun would take a prohibitively large booster. they will steer it over the pacific like they usually do. It's on a much higher inclination than Skylab so that might mean more ocean to use.

Answer 4

It will burn, the remain will drop into the pacific ocean. They have it all planned out.

Wikipedia

Answer 5

They might dismantle it in space, and bring it down peice by peice to sell to museums for little inquiring minds like yours to ponder upon till you die =]