What is going to happen with the U.S. stock market in the next three months: up, down, or even steven?

Question

What is going to happen with the U.S. stock market in the next three months: up, down, or even steven?

Answer 1

My advice is to not worry about where the market will be in 3 months.  Pay attention to the tape and price action.  The March to May rally began with a couple really big up days within about a week of each other.  That is generally how a market rally will start.  The most recent big directional days have been to the downside, and the current trend is down.  However, there have been some big moves to the upside in commodity related stocks.  Leave forecasting to the pundits on CNBC...they tend to get it wrong most of the time.  Let the market tell you where it wants to go.

Scott Cole

www.kungfutrader.com

Answer 2

A lot depends on the geo-political environment for the next few months.

If there was a war, for example, or another terrorist attack in the US or UK,   or even if a hurricane knocked out rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, or the terrorists succeed in destroying a Nigerian refinery, etc.

Then, you got to consider the playing out of the subprime crises - I think we will see more financial institutions go down.  The crises is NOT over yet.

Finally, the housing market in the US has to recover a little to give confidence to the public and get them spending again.

My own opinion is down - and testing the 11,500 or lower levels.  There seems to be nothing but bad news all around at this time.

Answer 3

It's hard to say, but it seems we are in an economic slowdown, or recession, depending on who you listen to and what data you track.

This can give us some clues historically about what the market is likely to do in the coming months.

The market historically goes thru bull and bear market cyles. The typical bear market(downturn), is half as long as a bull, or even shorter, typically lasting about 6 months. So, perhaps by the end of the year by historical standards.

Also, its worth noting, that the stock market and economy do not respond equally at the same time. The stock market tends to lead economic activity. In other words, it looks forward. If you look back historically at market behavior, you'll find that most bull market rallies occur in the middle or toward the last 1/3 of a recession. So when its gloom and doom and everyone thinks the market will never recover because of CURRENT circumstances in the economy, is typically when the market is looking forward a few months and starts to rally anticipation of an economic recovery.

Overall, in 3 months, I would say a new low for the year in the market is likely, but historically, I would expect a recovery in the market by years end, but the economy may still be in tough times.

Answer 4

Flat to lower but up on the long run

Profit from it in the mean time at www.dowteq.com

Answer 5

after it touching 12000 on Wednesday I would guess it will be up in 3 months.

Answer 6

Static volatility.  A trader's / stock picker's market.

Answer 7

all three

Answer 8

There will be an October crash because the environmentalists will feel entitled to destroy all sources of pollution like a bunch of barbarians of righteous.

Answer 9

like Ric Edelman man says,"you can never predict what is going to happen in the stock market"... But the way our economy is heading I believe we all know what can and will happen.

Answer 10

Who knows for sure but I have a neutral to bearish poster so I might say down a little.