What is known about hurricanes in the Atlantic basin and global warming?

Question

The Journal of Nature published an article today which shows that a 0.5°C increase in sea surface temperature can be associated with an approximately 40 per cent increase in hurricane activity. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080130130647.htm

Other studies have said that global warming increases wind shear, which can decrease hurricane frequency.

I’ve also read that warmer ocean temperatures could increase the intensity of hurricanes, and its affect on frequency was unknown.

What do you know about the relationship between hurricanes and global warming?

Answer 1

Hurricanes develop and thrive on warm air.

Answer 2

The only correlation you can come to between hurricanes and global warming is that warmer waters can help produce more hurricanes and intensify hurricane strength.  That's all there is.  You will always have anomaly years and average years, so actually there is no direct link between the two.  People like the refer to Katrina and other hurricanes that caused catastrophic damage but in all reality it's all about where a hurricane makes landfall.  If a hurricane makes landfall in an area that is already below sea level then you will see damage like New Orleans when katrina hit.  What people should look at for global warming making more hurricanes more intense they should focus in the middle of the Atlantic where there is more circulation.  You often see hurricanes develop in the mid-atlantic then see them intensify once they reach warm waters of the gulf of mexico.  The reason they intensify in the gulf is b/c the water is more stagnant therefore is much more warmer in the gulf than in the mid-atlantic.  So if you see a pattern developing of hurricanes intensifying in strength in the mid-atlantic then you could probably bank on it being a cause of global warming, but if they intensify only once they reach the gulf, well then that's nothing new.  Also if you'd like to see hurricane frequencies for the past 150-160 yrs check out the website I've posted and see for yourself if global warming is effecting hurricane frequency and strength.

Answer 3

It might also have to do with the condition of the pacific ocean too.  El nino years tend to tone down the atlantic hurricane season.  So what happens in an el nino?  Warmer water in the eastern pacific.  Maybe that is a big influence?

Answer 4

Quoting the Journal of Nature as proof of global warming is like quoting the bible as proof of God.

Answer 5

Interesting - good find.

The tricky thing is that global warming causes both increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and wind shear.  Increased SSTs apparently increase both hurricane frequency and intensity, while increased wind shear does the opposite.

"Based on historical relationships, the impact on hurricane activity of the projected shear change could be as large -- and in the opposite sense -- as that of the warming oceans."

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/200...

According to the UCL scientists in the article you cited, so far the SST increase has been the stronger influence, as hurricane activity has increased 40% over the past decade.  It appears to be unclear whether this trend will continue at this point.

eric c - 'Nature' and 'Science' are two of the top scientific journals on the planet.  All scientists aspire to be published in these journals.