What is the rate of birth and death rate in Metro Cebu as of year 2000 until present?

Question

What is the rate of birth and death rate in Metro Cebu as of year 2000 until present?

Answer 1

More current information not yet available

The National Statistics Office (NSO) should be commended for their quick processing of the resultsof the last census, which they conducted just a few weeks ago. Preliminary figures have been released, a general summary of national and regional figures in the print media (including the Inquirer last Saturday) and more detailed provincial and city data on the NSO website (www.census.gov.ph).

There’s a lot to look at even with the preliminary figures so let me try to make some sense of the statistics. For starters, we find that the our population increased from 68.6 million during the 1995 census, to 75.3 million this year. That means during the last 5 years, our annual population growth rate was about 2.02 percent. Prior to that, in the years 1990 to 1995, the rate was 2.32 percent. That’s a significant decrease and suggests that our family planning programs are making some progress, although I must say the 2 percent population growth rate is still one of the highest in the Asia-Pacific region and reminds us much more needs to be done to promote both family planning and responsible parenting.

The national figures mainly reflect the dynamics between birth and death rates. When you get down to regional, provincial and city census figures, we get to look at migration patterns. Economic opportunities, peace and order, governance – all these affect the population growth rates as people decide to stay, to move in or to leave a community.

The National Capital Region (NCR) grew by 2.3 percent a year and is now bursting at its seams with 10.5 million people. NCR can’t support too many more people so it’s not surprising that the fastest growing regions in the country , population-wise, are the areas around NCR’s perimeter: Southern Tagalog, with a 2.8 percent annual population growth rate, and Central Luzon with 2.6 percent.

It looks like the Visayas continues to have low population growth rates, which may seem surprising since they also have among the highest fertility rates in the country. Again, the explanation lies in migration except that the Visayas sends people out, not just to Manila and other regions in Luzon but also toward the south, to Mindanao.

The census figures speak of Mindanao’s promises as well as tragedies. The regions of Northern Mindanao and Southern Mindanao continue to have growth rates higher than the national average but they seem to be losing steam. Population growth rates of boom cities like Davao and General Santos are slowing down, reflecting the uncertainties because of the war in Mindanao. There is even depopulation in some Muslim areas, such as Marawi City, where the population dropped from 114,000 in 1995 to 85,000 this year.

Let’s shift back now to NCR and the adjoining areas. Not all neighboring provinces around Metro Manila attract migrants equally. The most popular is Rizal, with a 5.6 percent annual population growth rate, the highest among the country’s provinces. Within Rizal, Antipolo City had a growth rate is 6.3 percent, the second highest in the country (after Trece Martires in Cavite). Rizal pulls in people for many reasons, including its proximity to Metro Manila, job opportunities within the province itself and its natural environs -- it’s mostly in the uplands and still has many fairly pristine areas, notwithstanding the terrible garbage dump in San Mateo.

To the south, the boom provinces are Cavite with a 3.7 annual population growth rate and Batangas with 2.8 percent. Strangely, Laguna’s growth rate was only 1.5 percent, notwithstanding "pro-life" Governor Joey Lina’s banning of artificial contraception from his government facilities.

NCR itself is an enigma, with people shifting back and forth among its 17 cities and towns. Pasig and Marikina posted the highest growth rates, clearly because of investments that created new jobs, accompanied by fairly decent social services. On the other hand, Pasay City’s population has been contracting by almost 5 percent each year, a trend that matches its descent into sleaze. Manila, the country’s erstwhile primate city, grew by only 0.2 percent a year, again in spite of "pro-life" Mayor Lito Atienza, who has also banned artificial contraception in public health facilities.

There’s an interesting "north-south" difference emerging in NCR’s development. It seems that to the south, there’s a spill-over of Makati’s plush subdivisions with the rise of middle- and high-income housing projects. But all these do not fuel population growth because it’s unaffordable for most Filipinos. In fact, Makati and Muntinglupa’s populations have already began to decrease as the middle class seeks out cheaper subdivisions in Cavite.

In contrast, to the north, there is a population boom with annual growth rates of about 4 percent for Kalookan and Valenzuela and nearly 5 percent for the entire province of Bulacan. These areas are not exactly models for urban development but they do provide more affordable rentals and housing for a working-class population.

We’ll probably find similar trends elsewhere in the country, where housing affordability will determine population density. For example, Cebu City’s population growth rate was a flat zero over the last 5 years but its neighboring cities moved in leaps and bounds, Mandaue City at 6 percent a year and Lapu-Lapu at 3.1 percent.



The NSO will release full census figures toward the end of this year. Those figures should have something for everyone, whether politicians planning for their election budgets next year, health officials interested in evaluating effects of family planning programs, bishops interested in assessing how faithful the faithful are to the injunction to go forth and multiply, or business people looking for new investment niches. And we crazy numbers-crunching social scientists? We sit back, looking how the interactions of politicians and religious and business people shape the results of our censuses.