What percent of scientist have to believe in a theory before it's accepted as true by the consensus?

Question

Do at least 51% of scientist have to agree with a theory before it's considered fact, or does the number have to be higher?

At what point does the number of scientist prove a scientific theory?

What if 60% of scientist are 80% sure? Does that count as 60%, 80%, or just 48% of scientist?

Answer 1

Global warming is a theory because its not proven by real repeatable experiments.

Answer 2

Depends on the agenda and the money behind it.   That's not science however it seems to be whats going on today.

Answer 3

Generally 'consensus' is defined as a majority, or 51%.

In terms of AGW, the scientific consensus means 'vast majority', somewhere near 99%.

Answer 4

95%

Answer 5

Its not really done by percentages, Its more of a popular vote.  You know, it the popular nuts vote for it, such as gore or the un, well then it MUST be true.  even if every other Sane scientist with real science says its not.

Just like it was in school.

Answer 6

Science is not about consensus, it is about testable hypotheses.  For an example of what happens when "consensus" becomes the standard, read up on what happened to Galileo.

Answer 7

Until it is proven, it is never fact imo, for example this is why it is called "The theory of evolution" not the "fact of evolution"  What ever you believe in, if you dig for proof long enough you will find it even it if isn't real.

Answer 8

It's more related to the quality and quantity of the data that agree with predictions derived from that theory, rather than the number of scientists that "believe" in it that determines whether a theory has enough verification to be established as likely to be true.  This is a not unsubtle difference, and one that is taught in the most basic courses on the philosophy of science, that you would do well to learn.  

A good example is the search for the Higg's boson.  If it isn't found at the energy level predicted by the standard model, then there is a fairly large problem with the standard model that will have to be addressed.  See, it's not the number of scientists who believe that a Higg's boson exists, it's whether or not the standard model will correctly predict the energy of the Higg's boson, *if* it is found, that determines whether scientists will accept the standard model.

Answer 9

There is no percentage. If the prevailing theory can stick around as long as it has with people trying to knock holes in it and overthrow it, and it has passed with flying colors against all comers (as is the case with AGW theory) then it is a successful theory.

Answer 10

We don't know what the IPCC's criteria for concensus is.  It could be 50% or whoever makes the best arguments or whoever sounds most sure of themselves or whoever sounds the most passionate.  

In the case of the IPCC, the process of obtaining consensus is not public. If they took a poll, they never published the questions or published the poll numbers.    

Not only is consensus the only proof of AGW, we don't even know what the definition of consensus is.

Answer 11

Scientists are notoriously skeptical.  Its part of the basic foundation of scientific method to have doubts about everything.  So even when you accept that something is likely the case, most scientists will agree that more experimentation, more modeling, more evidence is always in order.

This often leads lay persons to think that because a theory is still being debated that it means the scientists don't generally agree on it.  You can find all sorts of arguments against the theory of evolution, for example, or even the theory of gravity; based on some people taking pieces and parts of experiments, observations, and studies and saying "Look here, this disagrees!"  (Always in a triumphant tone of voice)

Scientists practice science....which is organized skepticism.  So when every single scientific organization that has anything to do with a particular problem, such as our current global warming situation, agrees that it is a problem with significant human elements, you can bet that there is something to it.

No fixed number.  No fixed percentage.  Just a general agreement even while the details are still debated.

Your looking for a fixed percentage is really missing the point.  Sorry I'm not articulating this better, but I think you are asking the wrong question.