What were the 2010 South African open golf betting predictions?

Question

2010 South African open golf event has just concluded. I am writing a betting preview of 2010 South African open golf betting. I am specifically looking for the bettng predictions for 2010 South African open.

Answer 1

As seen on other minor tours, the South African Open  has usually been dominated by the small number of home players with a strong global profile. Prior to Richie Ramsay's surprise win last year, the previous eight renewals had been shared out between ERNIE ELS, Tim Clark, Retief Goosen, Richard Sterne, JAMES KINGSTON  and Trevor Immelman. All bar the last-named are in the leading group on bookies' lists this week, along with the equally obvious CHARL SCHWARTZEL, Louis Oosthuisen and Thomas Aiken.

There are a few Europeans worth mentioning, but first let's deal with the home challenge. Clark starts favourite at his home course, Durban Country Club, a famous links widely rated as the best in South Africa. Having won the last two Opens at Durban, it is impossible to argue with his claims. Moreover, Clark has been gradually closing the gap on the likes of Els and Goosen, who while still world-class are not quite the force they were five years ago. However as long-term readers will know, the idea of taking single figures about this serial bottler is never going to appeal to me, especially given the spotlight he will inevitably be under.

Goosen is another who has become frustrating, and it could be significant that he's only contended once out of four tries at Durban, even in low-grade Sunshine Tour events. Aiken also has a poor Durban record, while Sterne and Oosthuisen have their own questions to answer after injury lay-offs.

All the other three are worth backing. Odds of 9/1 about Ernie in his national Open is bigger than anything in recent memory, including years when the opposition was much stronger. This event has attracted the likes of Westwood and McIlroy before, or even former Sunshine Tour money list winner Anders Hansen. This year, the shortest-priced Europeans are last week's winner Pablo Martin, Ramsay plus serial bottlers Damien McGrane and Robert Rock.

Disappointing performances on Ernie's two latest starts are a matter of concern, although one could argue that the greens at Sun City and Dubai were faster than is ideal for Els these days. His 2010 PGA Tour form is superior to all his main rivals, and having already won a South African Open at Durban in 1998, the Big Easy is worth a bet to land his fifth title.

Though second place is hardly an effort to be criticised, Schwartzel never really looked like delivering at short odds last week. He's now available at twice that mark due to the presence of those high-class compatriots and therefore worth perservering with. I have a feeling that by the time this event comes around in 2011, he'll be the leading South African. Schwartzel is certainly a much better player than when runner-up at Durban five years ago.

Kingston must come into this argument after a decent tenth place on a course that was far less suitable. He ranked first for greens in regulation at Leopard Creek, despite being at a significant disadvantage in terms of driving distance. That won't be a problem around Durban, a short par 72 where tee to green accuracy is very much the order of the day. No wonder then that the usually accurate Kingston has finished fourth, third and ninth on the last three South African Opens at this venue.

The overseas challenge is mediocre. Martin followed up on last year's Dunhill win with sixth in this event so warrants respect, but is hard to fancy for back-to-back wins on a course where his power will be less effective. John Parry appears to have gone off the boil since that brilliant late-summer run and Alvaro Velasco failed to convert his Challenge Tour form at this higher level. Speaking of that tour, Thorbjorn Oleson fared easily best of the new recruits last week, and rates the likeliest European for my money because he has such good recent form in the bag.

Another home player on my shortlist is JBE KRUGER. He took the eye last winter, giving us a great run for our money at huge odds in one of these co-sanctioned events, and has since enjoyed the best season of his four year career. He's finished first or second eight times in 2010, as recently as three weeks ago in the fair standard Kings Cup on the Asian Tour. Kruger can usually be relied upon to consistently hit fairways and greens.

Numerous otherwise plausible home candidates are overlooked due to previous Durban failures. Jaco Van Zyl came through European Q-School last week and has endured a decent year but has never bettered fifth in weak Sunshine Tour events here. Similarly Keith Horne and Hennie Otto have never shown any particular likeness for this layout. Branden Grace and George Coetzee are decent young home prospects, worth keeping an eye on.

The final two spots in the staking plan were between four outsiders. Garth Mulroy has snippets of US form and is always dangerous in his homeland. He finished third in this event at a different venue three years ago, and might have been a pick without recent injury problems. Jean Hugo is a familiar name to European fans with long memories. Hugo was fairly competitive around the turn of the century, but has rarely ventured overseas since. He's had a great year on the Sunshine Tour, winning three times and rarely out of contention.

Very marginal preference is for ADILSON DA SILVA and MICHAEL HOEY. Backing the former at 90/1 on this course is a no-brainer, given that he's won on his last two visits to Durban! Of course, the Suncoast Classic is hardly one of golf's premier prizes but it means something nonetheless. He also finished third here in 2009.

Hoey is a big price given his consistent campaign in Europe. Though rarely challenging, he's only missed one cut since Loch Lomond in July. I have a feeling this week's test will suit the Irishman, who was second in the co-sanctioned Africa Open last year. His sole Euro Tour triumph came on a links, at Oitavos Dunes in Estoril.