What will GW advocates say when the SAT data shows the same trend in another 5 years?

Question

Look at this SAT data starting at year 2000 and assume the data stays flat or declines for the next 5 years-- say about 2013

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/4way.jpg

Answer 1

I did get a laugh out of Hansen's recent speech promoting his AGW baby. Sort of funny that temps are cooler now than when he gave one of his initial AGW  speeches 20 years ago.

Answer 2

Interesting question. I've used data and computer models for the last 50 years.  I've learned one truth: The data never lies but people who want to make something of it will.  Statistical analysis will tell you that 30 years of data out of millions of years of global temperature is not conclusive.  It's like saying : My team is ahead by 10 to 0, therefore the final score will be 40 to 0!  The Dow has trended up from 1000in 1973 Where is your money?

Answer 3

Probably something similar to what you would say when the SAT data shows an upward trend in another 5 years.

Anyway, why should I just "assume the data stays flat or declines for the next 5 years"? Just because you say so?

The data is so "noisy" that you need much longer time scales to see a trend that is greater than the noise. If you look at only the year 2007, it is sharply down, if you look at only 2002 - 2007 it is flat. if you look at only 1997 - 1998 it is sharply up. If you look at 1979 - 1998 is it trending up quite a bit. If you look at 1979 to 2007 it is trending up a little.

So you can't pick and choose and you can't assume. You need to look at all data. And you need statistics. You need to do a least squares fit to all the data. When you do that the trend is up.

Answer 4

They'll no doubt be tellling us that all their hard work paid off, and that somehow they were able to stop global warming.

That's the kind of thing I'd expect from them anyhow.

Answer 5

First of all, I would like to point out that in the graph you link, the satellite data shows the same trend as the surface data.

Secondly, you're grossly oversimplyfing things.  If the trend continues to be relatively flat (though it's actually slightly increasing) in 5 years, what would be the cause of that?

The critical issue is not just what's happening, it's why it's happening.  We'll still have seen a 0.5 deg C warming over a 30-35 year period 5 years from now even if temperatures stay relatively stable.  The only explanation for that warming remains human GHG emissions.  If there is a natural factor (i.e. La Nina) temporarily slowing the warming, that doesn't disprove AGW.

'Skeptics' still need to come up with a plausible alternative scenario which can explain the warming over the past 30 years.  Something which dominates the 1.66 W/m^2 radiative forcing from CO2.  Until you can do that, or until global temperatures change in a way that contradicts what's predicted by AGW (and a 5 year period cannot do that), then AGW will not be disproven.

*edit* you're assuming (based on what, I don't know) that the computer models will need reworking.  My point is they won't.

Answer 6

Figure 7 in the link below pretty much closes the door on the AGW theory. The mid troposphere or graph TMT indicates that the warming was not associated with the greenhouse process. But there will be some cooked up dataset with a pitifully weak explanation as to why the data is corrupted or biased., and does not support GW.

http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_descri...

Answer 7

Actually it will probably decline to 1975 levels by 2018 or so. It might even drop lower than that because they are still arguing if we are in for a dip like the 1943 to 1983 period or little ice age like the 1450 to 1850 period. So it could get real cold in another 50 or so years like it was in the 1700s.

Answer 8

World Meteorological Organization

Climate = Average of weather over 30 years

Anyone with a little numerical analysis experience can see the obvious warming trend over the 28 year plot you linked too.  Lot's of expected ups and downs, with approximately a 0.15 C/decade warming trend.

To be more precise:

http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_descri...

RSS warming trend = 0.171 C/decade

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2007/

"Global warming stopped in 1998," has become a recent mantra of those who wish to deny the reality of human-caused global warming. The continued rapid increase of the five-year running mean temperature exposes this assertion as nonsense. In reality, global temperature jumped two standard deviations above the trend line in 1998 because the "El Niño of the century" coincided with the calendar year, but there has been no lessening of the underlying warming trend.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pr...

"A simple mathematical calculation of the temperature change over the latest decade (1998-2007) alone shows a continued warming of 0.1 °C per decade."

Edit:

Boatman - LOL. You (not me) posted a link to a plot of 28 years and I gave a proper explanation for the plot.

Answer 9

I don't know what we'll say, but I'm guessing we won't be in denial about it. (Why not turn your question around and say why are the skeptics still skeptical after decades of increasing temperatures?) If the Earth's temperature doesn't increase over the coming decades, or perhaps goes down, scientists will realize that their theories and models need to be revised. But whether it goes up, down, or remains the same scientists will continue to try and improve their measurements and theories--that's what they do. The ultimate test of any theory is observation and experiment. It doesn't matter how good a theory seems if it doesn't match up with what's seen in the real world.

What if temperatures keep going up for the next five years, will you admit that you've been wrong?

Answer 10

First they'll blame global warming for cooling the global temperatures.

Second they'll say that the GISS and Had are run by Exxon and the data is just a big oil conspiracy.

Third they'll say that these graphs prove that the temperatures are in fact rising.

All will be accompanied by the dire warnings that we have just 18 months lest before the Earth reaches 450 Degrees, and we'll  all turn into cannibals.