What will be the economic ramifications for the mid-east, and for the world, of military strikes against Iran?

Question

If, at some point within the next few years, either Israel or America (or both) attack Iran to halt their alleged production of nuclear weapons, what would be the economic consequences for the region and for the world?

I have read things that suggest that gas in the USA could be $10/per gallon is war is made against Iran. And that such an attack would produce an ever widening war, where things could only get worse.

What will happen if Iran is attacked?

Answer 1

Before I start, let me first say that I do believe Iran is a threat. i am troubled by their remarks about Israel and Holocaust.  However, I don't think war is option and that it would be too costly:

Well I don't know what the specific costs would be, but I can provide a general insight on the economic, diplomatic, and human costs to the war.

ECONOMIC:

Gas prices would surge.  Not only do many Middle Eastern countries already dislike us, they also would be inflamed if we attacked Iran.  Yes, we do have some allies including Saudi Arabia and Jordan (who I believe don't really like Iran).  However, we have a lot of enemies in the Middle East.  Syria, Sudan (its in Africa, but still considered an Arab nation) are just some.  I don't think our relations with Yemen are that great.  Anyway, middle east would be upset at us.  They would punish us with higher gas prices.  Also, even if they decide NOT to punish the US, gas prices will still rise. The reason: Tensions and fighting are not good for gas prices.  Why?  With tension and battling, less oil is pumped.  Oil producers feel more wary to pump oil during those times.  So gas prices would soar irregardless.

At home, the United States would be hurt a lot economically.  We alredy are spending so much money.  With a war we'd only spend A LOT more.  With no other real way to significantly raise revenue- thanks to Bush tax cuts- we'd only have spend more money and raise less money to make that up.  That leads to deficits.  Deficits-> Debt.  Debt leads to inflation.  Reason for inflation is because to pay down debt, dollars have to be printed.  Dollars are already printed at a high rate.  The more dollars printed, the less they're worth.  That causes more inflation.

And less money to spend elsewhere.  Plus, or financial reputation becomes more destroyed (its recoverable but wars will make it worse).

The only people who benefit are those of the oil companies. They run the oil corporations and would gain a bunch.

DIPLOMATIC/SOCIAL-

Much of the Arab world would become inflamed at us and Israel.  They'd see an invasion of Iran as aggressive and threatening.  Regional security would be threatened.  Many nations would voice out anger against us and our image, which is already hurt, would be ruined even further.  I think Iran would fund Hezbollah and Hamas even more and try to have them try to send attacks on Israel.  That would cause a two front war for Israel.  

I know I sound like a fear monger, but I can't think of any less 'fearful' way to put it.  I think our image would be ruined by an attack on Iran.  

And I forgot this for economic costs.  With gas prices high, other prices would rise.  Many goods prices would rise.  So would price of rice.  That would cause much hunger.  And maybe fighting over food in other nations.  That would result in violence, how much violence I'm not sure.  Too hard to call.

HUMAN:

Should the US use ground troops, there would be mroe American deaths.  American soldiers (if ground troops are used) would be stretched out a lot.  And with another war comes more complications.  Troops in Iraq have dealt (not all but there have been reports) with PTSD and other psychological stress.  Sending our troops to Iran would increase the stress (esp if they served in Iran).  If ground troops are used, we may need a draft, but that's not certain.  I don't know about that and I can't say with any certainty if we will.  I can't say how many troops would be killed (b/c I dont know and b/c I don't have the resources to predict as I'm sure government departments would make predictions on), but I know that Iran would be harder to fight than Iraq.

Another method US could use would be to use air force.  We could use air power instead.  That would save American lives (not needing to use ground troops).  And I'm pretty certain the Israelies would use air force too.

Should we use air power, we wouldn't have as many casualties.  It'd be like Gulf War...but harder.  We'd still have casualties though, but less than with Iraq.

Air power by Israel  (and US) could help destroy nuclear bomb sites.  It depends though...esp on how deep the bombs are and how far the bombs can go.

I'm thinking that a lot of civilians will be killed though.  The bombings- although leaders would do what they can to avoid civilian areas- will probably end up hitting a lot of cities.  It happens a lot in every war.  It will probably happen if we attack Iran.

So civilian casualties can be high.

Question is: How are we going to do this air war?  What do we plan to destroy?  Just nuclear sites? And how would the war end?

Summary: I don't wish for a war with Iran.  Iran is a THREAT, that they are.  They must be dealt with.  Neverhteless, we should use DIPLOMACY.  Diplomacy and sanctions.  That can help solve the problem with Iran.  Its not easy, but its better than war, which would be costly to each nation (in war) and to US image overall.

Answer 2

Iran is a much stronger country than Iraq, so the kind of insurgent ground fight that the U.S. is fighting today would cost thousands and thousands of American lives and spiral the country into economic turmoil.  From half a century preparing to war against the Soviet Union, America's primary military skill sets are for state versus state wars, not dealing with local terrorists.

However, it is likely that Iran would conscript all it's citizens the way that Japan did in World War II; therefore, leaving no civilian targets to suffer collateral damage.  America would easily dominate Iran an aerospace war in a matter of days and relinquish Chinese and other international assets in the Persian territories to their rightful investors.

Answer 3

If the wild beasts in america dare to do such an action, then nice americans must bear all the consequences, such as:

1)Having the honor of being called: "The 4th stupid Invaders to the land of Persians through the course of history;

2) Simply being defeated;

3) Being surprized that the are being badly punished in their homeland;

4) Understanding the fact that: If a war happens against Persia then there are no civilians any more in this Country, they are all soldiers, Man and Woman, as they are the defenders of their land, God and Beloved.

5) Being familiar with a National_Army Who will not kill children, women and those not in military service only because they are waiting for their sons!

6) WORLD WAR THE THIRD+ONE.