What will happen if Russia does this?

Question

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080828/ap_o...

In this article, scroll about halfway and the Russian government told the Republic of Moldova that any aggression verses its separatist region could provoke a "Military response."

Now, To the east, north and south of Moldova is Ukraine, and to the west is Romania. Tensions are already high between Ukraine and Russia, mainly because of a port the Russians have leased in the black sea that resides on Ukrainian waters, and military threats from Russia versus Ukraine.

So Moldova is land locked, so in order for Russia to get to Moldova, they would have to invade Ukraine as the most direct route, fly over Ukrainian airspace to get to Moldova or use a Ukrainian based port they have leased to come from the south of Ukraine into southern Moldova.

Basically, they would have to violate Ukrainian sovereignty to get to Moldova, there is no way around it. I think this would get all of Europe, N.A.T.O and the EU on edge, especially the neighboring regions, Poland too.

So my question is, how do you think the west would react to a military scenario as listed above?

Especially after everything with Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia and what not.

Answer 1

The link is broken.

If Moldova did not start killing civilians, as Georgia done, your "ifs" are just non-scientific fictions.

Voronin is wiser that Saakashivi.  

Answer 2

I think a Russian military response on Moldova, even using Ukranian waters and air space, to support separatists in that country, would still not be enough to mitigate a military response from the West. The stakes are just too high to start a war against the Russians.  

Nevertheless, if ultimately Russia decides the invade Moldova, I do believe this will result in the realignment of military priorities in the region.  Nato, im sure, will station more military assets (probably in Poland and Turkey) in the region if only to showcase its might.  The US could increase fly-bys of its large bombers close to Russian territories, which would infuriate Russians to the bone.  Rhetorics from the British and Eastern Europen countries will surely hog the headlines.  War games will be aplenty.

But all of the above will not lead to war.

Not over Moldova.  Not even over Ukraine.