What will happen to Kurdistan?

Question

What will happen to Kurdistan?

Answer 1

Dear Shlomo,

I don't think it would be really possible to create a future Kurdistan that would include all parts. Even if Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Syria each gave up their part of Kurdistan, the unification of the parts into a whole Kurdistan would face internal political conflicts. But then again after seen the great progress the two major parties in South-Kurdistan, PUK and KDP have made in uniting their offices, there might be a slight of hope for the people of Kurdistan to finally fulfill a long lost dream any way.

In the mean time the temporary solution to the Kurdish problem seems to be federation. Currently it may look like Iraqi Kurdistan could become the first part of Kurdistan to be given autonomy within a federal Iraq. But actually the Kurds of Iraq would have the hardest time achieving their goals. If we look at Kurdistan as whole, the part that is occupied by Iraq is actually the richest one. The Iraqis would not easily give up the Kurdish oil rich cities of Kerkuk and Khaneqin. The fact that the Iraqi governing council has rolled out Kerkuk and Khaneqin from the temporary Kurdish self-governing territories prove just this. The Kurds have gained nothing by backing up USA in the war against Iraq. The Americans have on the contrary tried to dissolve Iraqi Kurdistan. Therefore an autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan with the three provinces of Slemani, Hewler (Arbil) and Dihuk and without Kerkuk and Khaneqin would remain as before the war started.

War is probably not the right solution to give the Kurdish Iranian people back their voices. Iran is as well a multinational country. The time where a group of tyrants in Tehran could rule over the people is over. A future Iran should be a federal Iran where the people decide their own fates. It is to the advantage of the Iranian Kurdistan to be an autonomous state within this federation.

The same model should be appropriate to apply to Kurdistan in Turkey. After all the vast majority of the Kurds live here, and in a future democratic EU-member Turkey there would be no room for any less than this.

Syrian Kurdistan would probably the last part to be liberated, and this would come when the Kurds get infected by the scent of freedom across the borders.

In the long term, it is mostly possible that the world will witness the creation of at least three autonomous Kurdish states rather than one huge independent Kurdistan consisting all parts. Even if all parts of Kurdistan were finally liberated and each gained independency, the chances that they will unite the parts into one great independent Kurdistan are small, because of the enormous different of opinions between the Kurds.

Hope it helps.

Answer 2

The Kurds should get a homeland eventually but now is not the time.  Iraq is unstable and it is likely that there are dual claims to the area.  There is also the issue of the Turkish-Kurdish conflict.  The U.N. could patrol the area and lead a NATO-backed peacekeeping effort.  Some limited self-rule and aid may help and the refugees will need a right of return back into Kurdish-majority areas.