What would be the most compelling SCIENTIFIC FACT that convinced you that AGW will severely impact the earth?

Question

If you do not think that AGW is a threat to our habitat. then please just say what you need to briefly.

I personally do not think we are a significant contributer to the current warm climate change.

Please don't be to vague or humorous, just answer the question honestly.

Answer 1

This chart convinced me:

http://www.technologyreview.com/articlef...

Understand paleoclimatology and one will realize that climate has changed in the past. Whenever climate changes, there is a clear relationship between greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperature. Sometimes changing temperatures (from another cause) drives climate change and a changing composition of atmospheric gases. Sometimes it is the other way around, and rising greenhouse gases drive climate change and rising temperatures.

The concentration of CO2 has increased by 35% since the time of industrialization. It now stands at the highest concentration at any point within at least the last 800,000 years, and quite possibly within at least the past 3-5 million years. Notice how the plot of CO2 concentration is OFF THE CHART? By how high should we expect the global average temperature to rise?

Answer 2

Well you're asking 2 different things.

1) Convincing fact that global warming will impact the Earth.

2) Convincing fact that AGW is a significant contribution to global warming.

For #1, I think the most complelling fact is that we're currently warming at a rate 20 times faster than when the planet naturally comes out of an ice age.

From the coolest portion of the last ice age to when it reached the current stable temperature range, the planet warmed about 8°C in ~8,000 years (0.001°C per year).

http://globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:I...

Over the past 30 years the planet has warmed nearly 0.6°C (0.02°C per year).

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs...

Assuming this rate of warming continues - and there's no reason to believe it won't, unless we do something about it - I think it's pretty obvious that warming at a rate 20 times faster than coming out of an ice age while in the middle of a stable warm period is going to have a severe impact on the Earth's climate.

This doesn't prove humans are causing the warming, just that it's warming alarmingly fast.

For #2, there are many basic scientific facts which can only be explained if the current global warming is being caused by an increased greenhouse effect due to carbon dioxide accumulating in the atmosphere from humans burning fossil fuels.

For example, the planet is warming as much or more during the night than day.  If the warming were due to the Sun, the planet should warm a lot more during the day when the Sun has influence.  Greenhouse gases trap heat all the time, so they warm the planet regardless of time of day.

Another example is that the upper atmosphere is cooling because the greenhouse gases trap the heat in the lower atmosphere.  If warming were due to the Sun, it would be warming all layers of the atmosphere.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index;...

Answer 3

So far, nothing.  To convence me that it is, I would need to see several things:

First, a clearly defined numerical relationship between man made CO2 and global temperatures,  This relationship must pass rigid statistical analysis for six sigma significance.

Second, realistic projections of future global temperatures, based on the relationship disclosed above.

Scientific analysis of the effects these projected global temperatures will have on key parameters affecting my life.

Economic analysis of how these changes will affect me.

Realistic timelines for all of the above.

All must be done with a complete absence of emotional hysteria and political hype.  It must also be completely void of any statements or demands on what must be done about it.  That is a subject for future studies.

Answer 4

1)  First, I need to see a definition of "Global Mean Temperature" that everyone agrees on.  There is none - even James Hansen, the NASA AGW Guru admits that.

2) Second, I need to see evidence - any evidence - that "warm" is better than "cold" when dealing with life on earth.  The great species "explosions" that occurred in the distant past did not take place on a plain in the Frozen Tundra!  They took place in a hot-house!  Warm is good for life in general.

Stop being so Homo-Sapien-Centric! Bunch of specists!

3) The rock as we know it has survived 5 billion years, and will in all likelihood survive (life and all) for 5 billion more.  I don't think any climate change has ever "severely" impacted the Earth.  You're being Homo-Sapien-Centric again!

Answer 5

There have been NO scientific facts , just random associations and statistical anomalies that are cherry picked to create a scenario of doom.  An even bigger burden of proof is required that the extent of what humans might do (or not do) will result in any meaningful lessening

As a famous scientist disclosed, better just plan to move 100 miles more north every 100 years to maintain your temperature if indeed you are worried.  

Not to make light of the question, indeed, many would enjoy a few more degrees of warmth next century!

Answer 6

If I had to name just 4:

1) Understanding the physics of how greenhouse gases trap outgoing infrared wavelengths and warm earth’s atmosphere.

http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/e...

2) Understanding the importance of the planet’s carbon cycle for both climate and life on earth and how it operates.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library...

http://www.columbia.edu/~vjd1/carbon.htm

3) Understanding how even small changes in ocean or atmospheric temperature can have big effects on global precipitation patterns.

e.g. El Nino/La Nina are well know examples whereby warmer/cooler waters transfer from one side of the central Pacific to the other influencing the positions of the jet-streams and can cause drought or flood to occur in regions right around the planet

http://www.nationalgeographic.com/elnino...

All the oceans have similar (but less well known to the public) temperature transport phenomena that impact atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.

4) The isotopic (oxygen and carbon etc) record from drilled ice cores and kilometres long ocean sediment cores recovered by drilling rigs that show a direct relationship between rises and falls in greenhouse gas concentrations and atmospheric and ocean temperatures going back hundreds of millions of years.

An example: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12457&ti...

Answer 7

The fact that storms happen more often than before and changes in the climate in general

Answer 8

If a person says it's going to be warmer in the future, they should be able to offer proof that it will be warmer and by how much.

No one can predict the future.  Statements should be more than a guess, or a persons opinion.

No one saw the record cold and snows across the US this winter.  Why not?

Answer 9

I'm already convinced by the data that is available now, but some people need to be killed by global warming to be convinced.