What would be the problem using a model that forecast a 1000yrs into the future?

Question

What would be the problem using a model that forecast a 1000yrs into the future?

Answer 1

The further forward (or back) in time you try to model, the less accurate your model will be because the more can change in that time.  The problem is that the uncertainty in a model 1000 years in the future is probably going to be extremely high (depending on what you're trying to model).

Answer 2

It can't account for new technology, political changes, or random natural phenomenon, etc.

Answer 3

The biggest problem is that climate models cannot accurately forecast today.  If you can't forecast the present, how can you possibly forecast the future?  The farther out in the future you go, the more inaccurate your model is likely to be.

The link to provided below shows a study done on climate models at Utah State University.  While they do show models improving, they are still not accurate, and cannot be relied upon to predict the future climate.

Answer 4

We can't accurately forecast five days into the future yet so how would another faulty long term forecast be beneficial?

Answer 5

"Absent human beings, it's no problem at all."

Incorrect. There are a number of variables that we have no control over, and yet they have large control over our climate. Who is to say what the sun might do, what ocean currents might do, what kind of volcanic activity we might encounter, etc.

"And it has been done."

1000 years into the future? Where? 1000 years into the past, yes, but that is a whole different game.

Answer 6

The biggest problem is that we can't predict what PEOPLE will do 1000 years from now, or what future technology will be, or what the climate effects of that unknown technology will be.

Absent human beings, it's no problem at all. And it has been done.

Answer 7

It can't predict the weather in 5 days, let alone 1000 years.

Volcanic activity, desertification and a hundred other natural phenomena have a significant impact to global weather, and are either impossible to predict, or dependent on unreliable factors, such as human activity. All impossible to predict with any degree of reliability.

Answer 8

It is impossible to forcast 100 days and 100 hours isn't all that accurate.  If you live in South Dakota, you probably can't calculate 100 minutes.