Whats the chance of hurricane gustav hitting new orleans?

Question

Whats the chance of hurricane gustav hitting new orleans?

Answer 1

Our hurricane expert, Nash Roberts, retired long ago.  Nash was the guy that Dr. Bob Lyons of the National Weather Service used to call before he became so familiar with storms himself.

The inheritor of Nash's mantle seems to be Bob Breck, who is now talking "Houston to the Sabine River" area.  The truth is, until Gustav hits the Gulf, we won't know because there are too many variables in the models.  Once it is over open water and within 72 hours of landfall (potentially), the models often converge and we know more about what to expect.

I've seen some tendencies of the track to head west or to stay south longer before turning northwest, but right now the models are just too far out to be fully trusted.

So, what are the chances?  Non-zero but nowhere near 100%

Answer 2

looks like it will but may not be a direct hit

Answer 3

it probabley will, but might now be a direct hit, but you should expect some rain and wind with wind gusts.   51 people died in haiti    :-\

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurric...

Answer 4

I live in Lake Charles, LA and we are closley watching the storm as well!

There isn't a set in stone path for Gustav but this site

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tra...

has an AMAZING tracking chart, that sadly, has Gustav DIRECTLY in New Orleans by Tuesday. I hope we as citizens in LA can make it through!! Katrina and Rita took us down...but we can make it through this!!!!

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE.