When is the earliest time that Nadal would be able to overtake Federer in the ATP rankings?

Question

Specific scenarios, please, if you can.

For example... if they play this tournament and Roger bombs out in the first round, Nadal would overtake him if he makes it to the QF... (just an example...)

Please, please, somebody answer this question. :)

Oh, and if by some miracle Fed wins everything until the end of the year (I am keeping my fingers crossed), is there any way Nadal would overtake him???

Answer 1

nadal would have to keep up his high performances and win the U.S open and maybe by the season ednding master series he might be number 1. In theory with Nadal usually playing more tournaments than Federer, he can make it but he has to compete with the like of Djokovic, Ferrer and Federer himself for hard court titles not to mention Nadal's inconsistency of the hard court. he might have to wait a little bit further.

Answer 2

as Nadal has withdrawn from Stuttgart the earliest time would be at Cincinnati (at Toronto it's no more possible).

btw, Fed's advantage over Nadal is just 545 points atm, and next monday it will be 770 points.

added

the points will change because Nadal has withdrawn from Stuttgart. this will cost him the 250 points he has won in last year. instead the 25 points he won in February at Rotterdam will be taken in account and therefore a total lost of 225 points.

points for the ATP rankings will be calculated every monday (as all tournaments end on a sunday).

Answer 3

Federer still has over 1000 points leading over Nadal. So far the only chance Nadal can overtake Federer would be if Federer retires. Maybe if Nadal wins all the finals and gains really that many points, then maybe a year later he will overtake.

Answer 4

Actually the quickest way for Nadal to overtake Federer is Federer getting knocked out of Cincinnati in 1st round, with Nadal winning it.  Should that happen (although I'm not holding my breath for that one) Nadal gains 495 points and Federer loses 495, which will effectively switch them around at the top.  There are several combinations between Cincinnati and Canada though where Nadal could overtake Federer since Roger is defending a lot more points at both.

Also if Roger wins the same tourneys he won last year, while Nadal is the runner up, Nadal will overtake Roger by the end of the year since by reaching finals in all of them (including US Open), Nadal will gain enough points to take over the top spot.

Answer 5

Well I'm not exactly sure when, but it's pretty close. I think Roger leads with about 600 pts right now. The U.S. Open series is coming up with a couple Master events. He has Cincinnati to defend and he played Canada where he lost to Novak in the final. Rafael played those two same tournaments but retired in the 2nd round in Cincinnati and lost in the semi's to Novak in Canada. If Rafa is playing those two same tournaments and goes the distance, he can take the #1 spot and if Federer does not defend his Cincinnati title.

Federer does not have a 1000 point lead. Here's the rankings:

http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/rankings/e...

Answer 6

Not soon, there is still too big a gap in ranking points.  Rafa would have to be better than Roger in every tourney the rest of this year, win the U.S. open, win the masters series title, and then win the Aussie in 09.  That way, he would overtake Roger after the potential triple of Hamburg, Monte Carlo, and Roland Garros.  Unfortunately, this is very unlikely. Rafa isnt winning anything on Hardcourts anytime soon, and i think Roger will rebound from this year. So he may never overtake Roger til he retires, and even then, who's to say Djokovic, Tsonga, Gulbis, or some other youngster like Monfils or Young hasnt figured out how to win consistently by then? He may never get the top spot. And you know what? That may be the best thing for Men's tennis after two eras of singular dominace by Sampras and Federer. (Yes, Andre was right there with Pete, and Hewitt had a little time after Pete, But those two were/are the dominant forces on the tour.)

Answer 7

If nadal makes up ground at the US Open and the Series then he can easily take number one. But if he decides not to take the summer hard courts seriously then he wont be number 1. He will have to do well in both Montreal and Cincinnati. If he makes up a lot of ground form last year he can take number 1 spot by early to mid August.

Answer 8

At the Us Open, from the Roger's, Cincinnati, Indi, finally at the US Open, but pushing. 500 pints each for the Master's winners. Big Open 1,000 points, and the sling scale for runner ups, and so on.  ATP Tennis channel.com will give you the info on how the point system works.  If Rafa wins two of the above, he will overtake Roger's # 1 ranking, even if Roger  reclaims his titles at Cincinnati, and the Open. Because Roger will not add points. If Roger loses ? He will fall flat on his face. ho,ho ho !!