When the odds are set for sports betting, how often is there an "upset"? Is it rare, or is it a 50/50 shot?

Question

When the odds are set for sports betting, how often is there an "upset"? Is it rare, or is it a 50/50 shot?

Answer 1

The underdog doesn't win 50% of the time, if they did the sportsbooks would be out of money!  Sometimes it seems like upsets just keep rolling.  I recently had money laid on 5 different favorites.  I was betting baseball, and all 5 should have been easy wins.  Strong pitchers matched against weaker, strong offenses vs. weak, and momentum on the side of every favorite.  They all lost.  Every single one.  Cost me a good chunk of my bankroll.  But bookmakers aren't fools.  It's part science and part art, and barring huge bets on an event the lines give you a pretty good idea of how likely an upset truly is.  Just don't forget to figure in the juice.  I consider any bet in the range of -120 to +120 to be even money.  But I almost always bet the favorite when the matchup makes the most sense.  And I win 64.3% of my bets.  Baseball has a lot of parity though, on any given day any team can beat any other.  The sport with the fewest upsets is college football, but just ask Michigan, they do happen.

Answer 2

Depend on the price really.  Gambling is gambling.  If say for nstance you backed a 20/1 shot then the bookies think it has less of a chance of winning.  The bookmakers love people who put hese types of bets on.  Youcan get very shorts on certain markets, for example on the gaelic football last week there was a team playing with odds of 1/300 to win the game.  So if you put on £300 your total return would be £301 so you woul only make a profit of £100 for the sake of risking £300.  The bookies know it is almost a certainty that the team will win and offer ridiculous prices to deter people from betting on it.  So the answer is it is not a 50/50 chance of an upset.  There are upsets but the majority of the favourites win especially when they are very short odds, hope this helps you.

Answer 3

i think it's about 50/50 because of the spread, that's why some people can make big money setting it.

Answer 4

It depends on the sport, on the team and etc and etc... I go for upset only if the player/ team is a headcase. or I go for underdog that is playing really good and motivated. There isnt a statistic how much times it will happen.