When will someone break 2 hrs. in the marathon?

Question

I have been following the progression of the world record http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_best_progression in the marathon since the 70`s when Derek Clayton held the record with a time of 2:08:33. In the famous 1982 Boston Marathon Alberto Salazar needed intravenous treatment after setting the course record in 2:08:51. He never fully recovered from that tremendous effort. Many thought that the record would stay close to that mark. Look what it did to Salazar....

Somehow runners have managed to find ways to beat those marks and the record is now held by the track trained Ethiopian phenomenon Haile Gebrselassie. He ran the distance in 2:04:26. The half marathon mark is held by Kenyan runner Samuel Wanjiru at 58:33.

I'd like to see 2:00 broken before I die in about 30 years. Will I live long enough?

Answer 1

The world record for the marathon will continue to get lower, but I just don't think it will get under 2:00 anytime soon. Sub 2:00 is as hard as running a 3:30 mile.  That's a huge leap in athletic performance from current world best performances.  If the record dropped 4 minutes in the last 30 years, maybe it will drop another 2 in the next 30 years.

Answer 2

I don't think it will take 30 years for the 2 hour marathon.

We have seen many fast distance runners migrate to the marathon, so times have come down.

Salazar's medical problems were from the heat and humidity, not the fact he ran fast, alone.

Gebrselassie will probably run faster in the future and if Bekele goes to the marathon he could run even faster.

Answer 3

i think 30 years is a fairly good estimate.

I disagree that Kenenisa Bekele would be the one to do it though!

Answer 4

maybe...the world will need a freak but its possible....