When will stock market recover?

Question

Or will it ever recover? The US stock market took the lead in the fall. Shortly thereafter, the rest of the world's stock markets followed suit. Can we expect something positive after the US elections?

Answer 1

Well yes. The elections happen in November which is typically the earliest people begin  to do there shopping for the holidays.

Answer 2

"Or will it ever recover?"

Really it has not crashed. Over the past 3 months it has been solidly in the green. If you look at the returns for Vanguard's Total Stock Mkt Index (VTSAX) you'll see this:

                        2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 05-08

Tot Return % -10.9  -21.0  31.4 12.6   6.1   15.6    5.6    -2.9

"Can we expect something positive after the US elections?"

No one knows but neither candidate is a strong free market proponant. Obama is a socialist. With a democratic congress, that could hurt us very badly. He also wants to raise the capital gains tax. That's horrible. The whole nonsense with 'global warming' could kill us.

Our businesses are heading offshore to friendlier countries. The US has one of the highest corporate taxes in the world.

http://www.taxfoundation.org/publication...

Answer 3

It always has.    -  The market goes up and down NOT up OR down

With the high price of oil and the very good possibility of it getting higher, the economy will remain on rough times.

We need the US, to get off their dependency on foreign oil, which if we did not have a very Liberal congress and too many tree huggers, we could be independent.

With the US free of foreign dependency, in additon we could possibly supply many nations that are currently depending on OPEC

Answer 4

maybe a short term boost

But we're in for a prolongued down fall ..... 20 years I reckon

I'll be given thumbs down for that, but I've read a dozen books and work in the City myself, I know how bad things are - and how severe things are being priced in!!!

Answer 5

The market historically goes thru bull and bear market cyles. The typical bear market(downturn), is half as long as a bull, or even shorter, typically lasting about 6 months. So, perhaps by the end of the year by historical standards.

Also, its worth noting, that the stock market and economy do not respond equally at the same time. The stock market tends to lead economic activity. In other words, it looks forward. If you look back historically at market behavior, you'll find that most bull market rallies occur in the middle or toward the last 1/3 of a recession. So when its gloom and doom and everyone thinks the market will never recover because of CURRENT circumstances in the economy, is typically when the market is looking forward a few months and starts to rally anticipation of an economic recovery.