When will the stock market finally bottom for 2008?

Question

I have been waiting for this, like forever!

Answer 1

Well, there's not really any answer to that since it's obviously impossible to know.

However, what can be said is that it's generally not wise to try and call the bottom on the market (don't try to catch a falling knife) - better to let it begin its recovery and then attempt to discern whether the rise is indeed a recovery or just consolidation before a further drop and act accordingly.

Answer 2

Your question assumes that the stock market will go into a positive trend some time in the near future.  And there is no guarantee that this will happen.

The market can stay in a trading range for quite a few years, just as it has done in 1960's and 1970's.

With high oil and commodity prices, rising unemployment, and extreme indebtedness among consumers and governments.  It will be hard to for companies to make good profits.  Because people will have to buy less in order to pay for all the added expenses and to pay off their debts.

And low company profits will skew the P/E ratios of these companies and make their stock prices look excessively high to investors.  Few investors would be willing to buy stocks at current prices.  And stock prices will inevitably come down a lot from where they are now.

Answer 3

I don't know when it will, but oil prices have to stabilize first.   Oil prices affect everything:   manufacturing, airline prices, personal expendable income, etc.

Answer 4

projections are grim thru 2009

Answer 5

The bad news from every direction is overwhelming.

Take your pick - housing collapse, credit crunch, high inflation, high oil, unemployment,  weak US dollar,  incompetent Feds, Congress, Senate, and Prez.

What's worse, the entire world is suffering right along with us.

Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia - high inflation

UK - housing prices collapse, bank failures

Europe - high unemployment, high inflation due to oil.

Tension in the Middle East between Israel & Iran.

Afghanistan and Iraq going nowhere

North Pole ice melting away - global warming, whatever.

Major Earthquakes, Floods and other natural disasters

Local wars and/or terrorism everywhere - Sri Lanka, Colombia, Gaza, Nigeria,  Somalia,  Zimbabwe,

Oh yes - things are BAD all over.

I don't think the stock market will bottom in 2008, maybe 2009.  And I feel that the bottom will be closer to 10,000 than 11,000.

Answer 6

I don't know when it will bottom but I don't think it will be anytime soon.

Why? Because there is not anything to drive the general stock market up. There will be pockets of opportunity.

The environmentalists are getting their way and people have to change their lifestyles by not using as much energy. When less energy is used there is going to be less production.  When production cuts back so does people's wealth. The basis for wealth is the production of goods and services.

Wealth is not money or gold because it you had a lot of gold or money but nobody is producing products to buy with the gold or money, what value is the gold or money? So wealth comes from productivity.

So the stock market is not going to go up until energy becomes less expensive.

When people have to pay more for energy, that means they have less to spend on other products and services which means less production and that means more unemployment. Not a pretty picture.

Think about when markets go up. It is when there is energy transformation. Such as the steam engine, the combustion engine, electrical generation, jet engine and then personal computers. So I'll say the market will trend up again when we go into another practical mass marketable energy transformation.

In the mean time keep your powder dry.

Answer 7

When the banks bounce back!